tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post7546325438060529582..comments2018-06-02T14:19:34.554-04:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Nick Foles and Interception Index RegressionBrian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-36595286243345609352014-09-21T07:38:08.832-04:002014-09-21T07:38:08.832-04:00I think some assumptions need to be made here. Yo...I think some assumptions need to be made here. You grouped Foles in with others that had ALREADY had some bad years. I know it would reduce the sample size, but a think a more valid study would have included first year starters and the regression from there.Wizardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-60071811054882999892014-09-16T02:58:08.055-04:002014-09-16T02:58:08.055-04:00Not sure everyone knows what INT%+ is (I don't...Not sure everyone knows what INT%+ is (I don't). Going forward I'd suggest explaining any unusual statistics and why you'd use it instead of INT rate.<br /><br />Do this: Open Excel and in column A make a column of integers 0:20. This will be the number of interceptions in a season. In column B at the top write =BINOMDIST(A1,550,0.028,0). This is probability of throwing the number of interceptions in column A. Drag down.<br /><br />Notice where the probabilities are maximized. Your YoY correlations are zero, meaning the estimate for this year conditioning on last year's INT rate is the same as the unconditional estimate -- in other words, the highest probability INT rate, or 0.028*(Pass Attempts) rounded.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-71892000297063211152014-09-12T12:30:41.608-04:002014-09-12T12:30:41.608-04:00Would be helpful to have a confidence interval sur...Would be helpful to have a confidence interval surrounding this estimate, or at least to have some t-statistics. From eyeballing the scatterplot, I'm not confident in your point estimate.Sunset_shazznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-87873413828568470702014-09-12T12:30:05.159-04:002014-09-12T12:30:05.159-04:00control for airYPAcontrol for airYPAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-24654935426032914012014-09-11T15:02:25.717-04:002014-09-11T15:02:25.717-04:00How useful is this if qb play is so inconsistent a...How useful is this if qb play is so inconsistent and turnovers are random?Andrew Suttonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01533887992615716129noreply@blogger.com