tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post5545256565571497274..comments2018-06-02T14:19:34.554-04:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Year-to-Year Improvement and Decline at QBUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76380746345389157322012-11-23T19:29:03.118-05:002012-11-23T19:29:03.118-05:00SD 3years of regressionSD 3years of regressionAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-68191016959178747352012-11-23T14:44:17.144-05:002012-11-23T14:44:17.144-05:00I'm surprised DET is positive over last year.I'm surprised DET is positive over last year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-30869042912456876302012-11-22T18:20:17.816-05:002012-11-22T18:20:17.816-05:00Joe-That't pretty interesting. But...did you t...Joe-That't pretty interesting. But...did you type in all those numbers on your own? It's a picture file, not a table. Impressive dedication!Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-67869306732630666122012-11-22T11:43:53.532-05:002012-11-22T11:43:53.532-05:00I did a really crude regression analysis on these ...I did a really crude regression analysis on these values and came up with roughly...<br /><br />8 - 40% [last years change]<br /><br />So yeah - definitely regression to the mean. But then again, it wasn't a very accurate model - these numbers are all over the place.Joehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13620964741133552233noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79836825231226294462012-11-22T11:05:53.596-05:002012-11-22T11:05:53.596-05:00Its change in EPA from the previous season...not t...Its change in EPA from the previous season...not total EPAtmknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-78920404950280931592012-11-22T09:32:15.406-05:002012-11-22T09:32:15.406-05:00I think there is some lookup error in the calculat...I think there is some lookup error in the calculation. Indy should have over 200 points of EPA in 2004, right?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52521227415485802432012-11-22T09:18:54.919-05:002012-11-22T09:18:54.919-05:00You'll notice "the regression to the mean...You'll notice "the regression to the mean". Almost every QB over 100 fell back the next year by a large amount.<br /><br />Even the very best QB's regress, Rodgers 143 last year and his -136 this year.<br /><br />Mannings big year in 2004, a 95, not quite a 100, but he fell off big time to -45 the next season.<br /><br />Bree's had a 109 in 2011 and a -57 this year.<br /><br />Rivers had a monsterous 172 in 2004 then fell way off to -93.<br /><br />Farve goes from 152 to -212.<br /><br />Seems to indicate, Manning, Luck, Freeman and RGIII will fall-off big time next season.Mike M.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-46513481436396795592012-11-22T03:47:44.106-05:002012-11-22T03:47:44.106-05:00Look at TB's last 6 years... Freeman's ro...Look at TB's last 6 years... Freeman's rollercoaster !!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com