tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post493104635678972577..comments2018-06-02T14:19:34.554-04:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Rex Ryan Runs Out of ChallengesUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35382946546712053622013-09-25T17:06:31.651-04:002013-09-25T17:06:31.651-04:00I am interested to see what the standard deviation...I am interested to see what the standard deviation of your WP metric is, especially since we're considering numbers as small as .06. I am just interested in what kind of confidence interval this number could fall in to.Tobyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16370333654512823284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-29287914596006870342013-09-24T15:19:45.009-04:002013-09-24T15:19:45.009-04:00This is a lot harder to mathematically prove than ...This is a lot harder to mathematically prove than the 4th down thing, but my suspicion has always been that coaches are far too conservative with the use of timeouts/challenges. <br /><br />Remember the ultimate goal is to use TO/chal at the point where they give you the most chance to win. That means that you must try and calculate the probability that you are going to need one at a later point in the game. There are two different types of errors a coach can make. <br /><br />1. Using a timeout/challenge early on a low leverage play and not having it available later when needing it for a higher leverage play.<br /><br />2. Not using a timeout/challenge early on a high leverage play and not using it at all (or using it for something silly like freezing the kicker) late.<br /><br />Situation #1 occasionally happens. When it does, announcers describe the error in extreme detail and everybody focuses on it the next day. Situation #2 happens far more frequently and rarely gets any attention at all. That doesn't mean it isn't important. Its still a major error and miscalculation that costs teams games even if nobody notices.<br /><br />Remember the goal is to win the game not to save the timeouts for the last minute. If you see a situation where a timeout or challenge would significantly improve your chance of winning. You should use it. You might not get another chance.<br />Jeff Clarkenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-4646238289797192952013-09-24T15:13:25.790-04:002013-09-24T15:13:25.790-04:00Mike Smith, there's a calculator on this websi...Mike Smith, there's a calculator on this website that spits out WP. It takes only as long as it takes you to type in the criteria, which should be plenty of time as long as the other team isn't hurrying to run a play (which presumably only happens for the biggest WP plays anyway).Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37702356991024628352013-09-24T15:11:16.084-04:002013-09-24T15:11:16.084-04:00The jets have actually been among the league leade...The jets have actually been among the league leaders in successful challenges and fewest penalties since Rex has been there so your point is incorrectAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-24838615911965935742013-09-24T14:27:35.626-04:002013-09-24T14:27:35.626-04:00But doesn't outcome bias run in the other dire...But doesn't outcome bias run in the other direction as well? There could have been, but wasn't, a need to use the challenge to effect a significant (though limited as you note above) swing and RR wouldn't have been able to do anything about it.chrisbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76286894876759927872013-09-24T12:32:32.375-04:002013-09-24T12:32:32.375-04:00this is very interesting, but my question is this:...this is very interesting, but my question is this: is it realistic to think that WP calculations can be whipped up in time for the coach to factor that probability into his decision to challenge or not? i honestly do not know the answer. <br /><br />the author admitted that he set out to prove that Ryan used his challenges poorly, only to find out that his null theory was untrue. this indicates to me that WP analysis isn't necessarily intuitive without actually running the calculation; ie, even if the coach had a good basic understanding of WP analysis he might not necessarily intuitively know the leverage of the outcome he was considering challenging. <br /><br />anyway, i found this to be a good read...does anyone have an idea of how WP could be realistically factored into a coach's decision whether to use a challenge? such decisions have to be made very quickly.Mike Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05595293805855408047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-23000030839859438302013-09-24T12:20:14.091-04:002013-09-24T12:20:14.091-04:00> This probably just goes without saying, but t...> This probably just goes without saying, but the most important criteria <br />> when making the decision to challenge has to be whether the ruling on <br />> the field will be overturned, right?<br /><br />Not really. A coach only gets at most three challenges per game, so it's important to consider how much difference the challenge will make immediately, and how much impact it could have later.<br /><br />There are also strange things that could come into play. For example, coach could challenge a call late in the game - even if he expected to lose the challenge - hoping for a 60 second review instead of getting 30 seconds for a time out.<br />Natenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12150875598361134872013-09-24T12:07:09.342-04:002013-09-24T12:07:09.342-04:00Good analysis, Brian. I am also surprised by the ...Good analysis, Brian. I am also surprised by the results.<br /><br />That said, I thought both the challenges were pretty stupid. Neither play looked like an egregious error (as we now can confirm), and challenging spots is generally a low-risk move. More importantly, if you watched the first play, I have no idea why Rex thought he was going to win that challenge. I won't blame him -- obviously he outsources this task -- but man, it seemed like a no-win challenge from the word go.<br /><br />And that cost them the opportunity to challenge the Manuel fumble. Completely agree that we (including me) fall victim to the bias that because the Bills scored a TD, the mistake by Rex was particularly egregious.<br /><br />And, as I feel compelled to point out, my brother would say "oh by the way, we should not exactly gloss over the fact that the officials completely botched the call and Manuel wasn't down."Chasehttp://www.footballperspective.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-46753761138823258212013-09-24T10:16:17.097-04:002013-09-24T10:16:17.097-04:00This probably just goes without saying, but the mo...This probably just goes without saying, but the most important criteria when making the decision to challenge has to be whether the ruling on the field will be overturned, right?<br /><br />Yeah, yeah, hindsight bias and etc. But the difference between fourth down plays and challenges is that fourth down plays are typically about coin flip, while challenges predictably have anywhere between a tiny chance of success to a huge chance of success, from the perspective of the coach beforehand.Adam Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-59153900595490167442013-09-24T08:30:50.682-04:002013-09-24T08:30:50.682-04:00You are looking at raw probability of winning vs. ...You are looking at raw probability of winning vs. % increase/decrease in chances to win. Although in this case I think the point is moot. (because BUF had about an equal chance to win in all three instances)<br /><br />Still, what's the bigger play? One that increases a team's raw chance to win by 15% when they have a starting WP of, say, 40%, or one that doubles the team's chances when they have a 12% chance to win?<br /><br />Put another way, like you said, when a team has things mostly locked up, it's tough to move the needle much farther in their favor. Therefore, raw gains in WP are more massive. I would posit that cutting an opponent's chances to win in half is pretty important in that situation even when the arithmetic increase in WP is low.Doctorjortshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01708231582042218526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33570447436913311682013-09-24T08:09:53.007-04:002013-09-24T08:09:53.007-04:00As a Jets fan ... this is nothing new with Rex.
He...As a Jets fan ... this is nothing new with Rex.<br />He's a GREAT defensive coordinator, but bad at everything else.<br />The team constantly has too many men on the field, or dumb penalties from Kyle Wilson, or bad clock management - all of which is on the coaching.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-57696562804176141082013-09-23T23:38:23.434-04:002013-09-23T23:38:23.434-04:00yes but denied turnovers aren't. Which needs t...yes but denied turnovers aren't. Which needs to be amended soon, as it leads to a tendency to rule Turnover /TD on the field and let the replay decide later.Kulkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17657346387956365135noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-78002468886071891292013-09-23T23:03:29.918-04:002013-09-23T23:03:29.918-04:00I was under the impression that all turnovers are ...I was under the impression that all turnovers are automatically reviewed since last season.Natenoreply@blogger.com