tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post3465655052260319251..comments2018-06-02T14:19:34.554-04:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Team Playoff Probabilities - Week 13Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-83161734577238524122009-12-05T17:32:53.359-05:002009-12-05T17:32:53.359-05:00I have been trying to calculate edge percentages s...I have been trying to calculate edge percentages since week 6 and have been awfully unsuccessful. The Edge mentioned in Week 5 that you simply take the "Straight up Odd" and multiply by the Game Win Probability to get the edge. <br /><br />I have no idea where to find the "straight up odd" because whenever I use the moneyline or some sort of calculation from it, it always ends up below one or well above one for those with high win probabilities...Can someone please help with the calculations?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-86120404676659855572009-12-04T10:30:06.761-05:002009-12-04T10:30:06.761-05:00Anon had a decent point. The game efficiencies pro...Anon had a decent point. The game efficiencies probably aren't accurate enough to tell the difference between 30% and 30.5%.<br /><br />But when you get down to less than 1% we can definitely tell the difference between anything above zero and true zero. <br /><br />I show two more decimal places on my website. I run 5000 simulations for those tables. Teams that have odds of making the playoffs of 0.02 would represent 1 occurrence in 5000 simulations. If more accuracy than that is needed, you can run the software on my website multiple times (I use 5000 simulations there as well) and average the results.Chrishttp://nfl-forecast.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-89354092909222944552009-12-04T07:54:41.097-05:002009-12-04T07:54:41.097-05:00I am not sure that is really informative. people ...I am not sure that is really informative. people have real problems with falling for the illusion of precision.Becephalusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52528445365873598592009-12-03T17:20:41.714-05:002009-12-03T17:20:41.714-05:00Can we get more significant digits than this? It w...Can we get more significant digits than this? It would be nice to know when a number is ACTUALLY 0 instead of just MIGHT AS WELL BE 0.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com