By Brian Burke
For now the score predictions are simply maximum-plausibility estimates. (Yes, I just made that term up.) Predicting an actual score for each game is statistically boring. With few exceptions, a statistically sound estimate would be 24-20 or 27-21 for every game, so I've added some of the human element to the score predictions. The bottom line is that readers should focus on the probabilities and don't bet the mortgage on the scores.
The game probabilities will be matched up against the picks of Will Lietch, one of the cornerstone writers at SOE. The idea is to create a friendly competition between man and machine.
The game probabilities had a great run at the New York Times--5 years. But there are only so many thought-provoking or counter-intuitive lessons on probabilities and predictions that can be squeezed out of a week of NFL games. But AFA will continue working with the Times on various projects as the season unfolds.
Here's the link to the probabilities for week one. For those keeping score at home, I had the Seahawks at 66% to win last night.