LIVE SUPER BOWL PROBABILITIES
The chances each remaining team will make it to the SB and win it are tracked live as each game progresses. The probabilities take into account the current game's live win probability, weighted by pre-game estimates of team strength and home field advantage. It also accounts for all future permutations of remaining games, weighted according to their likelihood of occurring. Those future games are also weighted by team-strength and home field according to seed.
I started out yesterday directly computing the probabilities, but because of the dynamic match-up scenarios that occur due to seeding rules, I decided to make things much easier on myself and create a Monte Carlo model. For example, who Denver plays depends on who wins the wildcard games, and who gets home field for the AFC conference championship game depends on who wins all the other games, and so on. Direct computation gets really hairy really quickly, and it's too prone to error to do it in a rush. So it was much easier to simulate a single iteration of the playoff tournament, then rerun it with weighted random outcomes n-thousand times. The proportion of times when a team makes it to the SB becomes their probability of making it to February.
The drawback is a small degree of imprecision. The estimates will occasionally dither by +/-0.01 just due to sample error. But that's the trade off I made to make sure I got it right.
The widget updates automatically every 30 seconds which is probably more often than necessary, but why not?
Since yesterday I've added SB outcome probabilities, and I may add a column for the probability for each team of making past the division round if I get around to it.