Game Probabilities - Week 15

Game probabilities for week 15 are available at the New York Times. This week I note the high playoff leverage of the NE-MIA game.

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9 Responses to “Game Probabilities - Week 15”

  1. e42e6524-6406-11e3-8670-000bcdcb8a73 says:

    Trying to reproduce these probabilities and would love some pointers.

    The GWPs as given are 0.45 for Houston and 0.47 for Indy. Indy's had an average schedule (Opp GWP = 0.5) but Houston has had a weak one (Opp GWP = 0.45) and so I find that Houston's opponent-adjusted GWP is 0.45.

    For the corresponding opponent-adjusted logits I get -0.565 for Houston and -0.120 for Indy. Adding on a penalty of -0.4619 for being away and computing to a win probability for Houston yields 29%, well under the 37% on the NY Times.

    I'm using the Week 14 stats at http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/12/team-efficiency-rankings-week-14.html and the -0.4619 figure is from http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/09/weekly-game-probabilities.html

  2. Anonymous says:

    Do you use a standard 3-point (or certain percentage) adjustment for homefield advantage, or is it calculated in some other way?

  3. Mike B says:

    Houston's GWP is 0.41, not 0.45. And you don't have to do the strength of schedule adjustment. It is already factored into the GWP.

  4. bae9bff0-646b-11e3-9f0d-000bcdcb471e says:

    Thank you, Mike B.
    I'm unsure of how to factor in home field advantage. The ahome coefficient at http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/09/weekly-game-probabilities.html is not equal to the twice the constant term as http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/how-model-works-detailed-example.html suggests it should be. The results I get by just ignoring the constant term and adding +/- 0.5*0.748577 to the logits for the home/away team gives results that don't match the NYT values but aren't far off; however, in this case I don't know what the constant term $C['const'] = -0.4619 is even for.

  5. Ben Cranny says:

    What is the Packers probablilty of winning when you account for Rodgers being out?

  6. Andrew Foland says:

    I've backed out that the HFA adjustment for the NYT game probabilities is ~57.5% winning at home. This has actually changed from last season, when it was closer to 62%--I asked a couple weeks ago when that had been changed, but I think it was after everyone had moved to the next thread.

  7. e42e6524-6406-11e3-8670-000bcdcb8a73 says:

    So @Andrew Foland, that would mean you add about 0.3022 to the logit for the home team and subtract it from the away team?

  8. Brian Burke says:

    Andrew-HFA has not changed. It does not directly correspond to a probability. When teams are close in strength, HFA is larger than when the game is lopsided. It averages 57.5%.

  9. James says:

    The equation is: (H*(1-A)*F) / (H*(1-A)*F+(1-H)*A*(1-F))

    Where H is the GWP of the home team, A the GWP of the away team, and F the home field advantage constant of 0.575. I've used this to get the game win probabilities a day early for the whole year and they are always within rounding error.

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