People will overpay to control their own payoffs. "The average participant is willing to sacrifice 8% to 15% of expected asset-earnings to retain control." This is consistent with the notion that teams that trade away too much to move up in the draft.
Using tracking cameras to analyze drives to the hoop in the NBA.
Keith takes Nantz and Simms to task for their misunderstanding of when to go for 2. This situation is not uncommon--I mean that teams should go for 2 earlier rather than later because of the value of information, not that announcers don't understand what they're talking about. (Although that happens plenty.) Here's an example from just a couple weeks ago:
Al Michaels wants IND to kick the XP, but in his scenario IND will need a 2pt conv at some point anyway. Better to know NOW you need 2 TDs.Keith is also right to catch Simms and Nantz recommending for the trailing team to do the conservative thing to 'keep it a game'. Sure, the networks prefer this because people stay tuned in, but that doesn't make it the right strategy. I've said for years that modern coaching strategy when behind is largely about delaying elimination until the latest possible point in the game, hoping for a miracle along the way, and not about maximizing their chance of winning.
— Brian Burke (@Adv_NFL_Stats) November 4, 2013
NFL player quits football because of his changing 'worldview'. I applaud people for pursuing their own dreams and convictions, but if Noam Chomsky and the Dalai Lama are your inspirations--well, good luck with that. Helmet-knock: MR.
"Unless you’re trying to dismiss something that you don’t really understand." On resistance to analytics in the NHL. H/k-Tango.
I'm sorry, but I'm entirely unconvinced by this post claiming that we're overselling the ability of analytics to guide on-field decisions. I've never read or heard anyone claim (except maybe myself years ago, who I disown) that because the league-average WP model says one option has a higher value than other then the conversation is over. Local factors matter, but they're often used as an excuse for some to dismiss something they don't really understand (see above). If local factors are so important and coaches are good at considering them, then why do they always happen to point in the direction of 1920s-era convention? If we're incorporating local considerations honestly, shouldn't they point in the unconventional direction at least half the time?
One of the few ways football is simpler than baseball is that football teams do not have to pay for the development of rookie non-free agents.
Benford's Law in the NFL.
The least important aspect of data science might surprise you.
ESPN is launching a new show and is looking for new hosts. Also, Pittsburgh's feelings toward their starting QB isn't aren't what you think.
I think Ed's onto something here. Welcome to the party.