Game probabilities for week 5 are up at the New York Times. This week I discuss the how teams with great offenses can mask the true strength of their defense.
Since the 2000 season, the 32 teams with the best offenses allowed 2.1 more Expect Points per game than the average team over the same period — a significant difference. This translates to about a 4 percent chance of winning a game when matched against a roughly equal opponent, and slightly less when matched against a lesser opponent.By the way, I gooned up the table on the post, leaving out Monday night's game. It's .57 - .43 IND over SD.