Weekly Game Probabilities

Game probabilities for week 10 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.

This week the lead-in summarized my recent post on the dangers of misplaced confidence in analytic models of open, real-world systems.

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4 Responses to “Weekly Game Probabilities”

  1. Dan says:

    Should I assume the probabilities listed this week are for the home teams?

  2. Anonymous says:

    It's in a different format than before. Looking over the numbers, it appears as though the probability is for the home team (the second team listed).

  3. Anonymous says:

    When Nate Silver makes an estimate of a probability, his favored pick (even if it is only 50.3%) always wins, he is 99 out of 100.

    Brian, i'd make a lot of money if your probabilities also behaved like that.


  4. Anonymous says:

    fyi, the chances that every one of the "favorites" win all 14 games is 0.12%

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