Sunday's Numbers Have Been Crunched

Sunday's numbers are now available, including advanced stat box scores, top players of the week, team stats, and season leader boards.

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6 Responses to “Sunday's Numbers Have Been Crunched”

  1. Ken R. says:

    Brian,
    I notice that ArianFoster is well down the list of running backs (36) and, in fact has a negative WPA (as does Bears RB Matt Forte). He has carried the ball many times this year when the Texans were in the lead and just milking the clock... often after Foster had been instrumental in getting them into the position to do this. Many of these "garbage time" carries resulted in little or no gain (many were in fact negative) and had no meaningful effect on the Texans win probability and probably adversely affect his SR. It seems odd that a back like Foster or Forte could have a negative WPA. How do these garbage time carries affect an individual runner's WPA and SR?

  2. Ken R. says:

    Sorry Brian... I think I was commenting on this week's numbers. Still... It is difficult to believe that Foster had a negative WPA for that ugly Bears game (100+ yds and THE TD) and I'm still curious about the impact of garbage time carries on a RB's WPA and SR.

  3. Brian Burke says:

    Good question. Although EPA and SR would be affected in garbage time as much as any other time, WPA would not be affected by garbage time performance, neither good nor bad. Once a game is 'over', WPA does not move from 1.0 or 0.0. This is one of the best features of the WP framework.

    Keep in mind that very good RBs often get 'overfed.' And since conventional runs are by nature negative expectation events, they will accumulate a lot of negative plays.

  4. Brian Burke says:

    One other thought. That particular game was very unusual because of the weather and field conditions. In games like that, it may not be 100% fair to apply the standard WP or EP models. For example, if the conditions prevent either team from passing effectively, neither team is likely to score very much. In that case, a small lead would be mean a very high WP.

  5. Ken R. says:

    Yes, along those lines... The 3 QB's that played in that game, Schaub, Campbell, Cutler are coming in at 27, 28 and 29 respectively. Each with big negative WPA. But 5 of the top 15 defenders for the day played in that game (Dobbins, Jennings, Manning, Jackson, Barwin), all with pretty strong WPA.

  6. Unknown says:

    Brian

    please answer a couple questions for me

    1)does the sack's negative epa go onto the quarterback?
    2) what would you say would be the average epa of an incompleted pass
    3) what would you say would be the average epa of a completed pass. (not a touchdown or interception)

    i am trying to put together a quick spreadsheet to evaluate qb's
    thank you

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