Nothing new here. I just thought this looked cool. It's the win probability of an offense with a first down trailing by 3 points. Actually, it is a little new. I'm trying to get smart on multivariate non-parametric kernel smoothing algorithms using R, the open source statistics package. That's just a fancy way of filtering out the noise inherent in the raw data and making a smooth estimate of the true probabilities. This chart is a product of my experimentation.
This axis going from 5-95 represent the midpoint of 10-yard bins of field position. The axis labeled 0-50 represent the game time remaining. The z-axis (vertical) shows the expected win probability. It's a little over-smoothed, at least in terms of field position. It might be under-smoothed in terms of time. Still have a lot learn.