Weekly Game Probabilities

Game probabilities for week 7 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.

This week I look at the the showdown between the AFC leading Ravens and Texans.

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10 Responses to “Weekly Game Probabilities”

  1. Will H says:

    I don't see how St. Louis is the favorite over greenbay? It doesn't seem to match the efficiency rankings at all.

  2. SportsGuy says:

    Brian could you explain Penalty Rate in more detail? Does this track all penalties over all snaps offensive and defensive? Or is there a breakdown?

    Did you ever test the ability to *draw* penalties?

  3. Jero D says:

    STL > GB... Home field, STL slight advantage in turnovers, penalties, & s.o.s. Otherwise it looks like GB OFF and STL DEF cancel out depending of the "weights" placed on those individual categories.

    Also, is there still some faux data smoothing the data because we are still in the first half of the season?

  4. Jero D (again) says:

    Thinking about penalties, while i think there is a certain ability to draw penalties by players or, even game planned for based on knowledge of the opponent. I think penalties may be more a function of the referee crew, their planning and knowledge of certain teams.

  5. bigmouth says:

    Is the Win Probability calculator down? I was trying to see if Harbaugh's decision to take the safety off the board was the right one. I assume it was because of the possibility of an onsides free kick, but I'm curious what the numbers look like comparing the WP of a team with possession up by one TD vs. a team receiving a kickoff up by 9.

  6. Michael C says:

    The article on the NYT site has an error in the link for team stat visualizations:

  7. Anonymous says:

    bigmouth - I don't think the Win Probability calculator is going to give you a good comparison because IIRC the calculator doesn't take time outs into account (a significant factor here) and both scenarios are going to be 'San Francisco Wins' up to the confidence interval.

    Since SF can kneel for the win taking over on downs is effectively a sure win.

    If you figure the chance to recover an on-side kick is roughly 1 in 4, and desperation passes are 1 in 50 then he safety gives SEA a 1 in 10,000 shot.

  8. bigmouth says:

    @Anonymous: That makes total sense. I was thinking the possibility of a fumble during the kneel down might be an issue. But that chance is so miniscule -- and the likelihood of recovering an onside kick so much greater by comparison -- it can't possibly make a difference.

  9. Anonymous says:


    What is your record for all weekly game probabilities? Is that public info, or is it "Top Secret"?

  10. Alan says:

    The case for the Ravens being overrated was surely strengthened yesterday. (So weird that those were the only two winning AFC teams when they met in week 7!)

    But I continue to fail to see the supposed hidden gem of greatness in Carolina. Their defense looks good at times, but they do not present a consistent offensive attack.

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