Weekly Game Probabilites


Game probabilities for week 6 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.

This week I dig into the Steelers' uncharacteristic numbers this season.

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8 Responses to “Weekly Game Probabilites”

  1. David Kravitz says:

    Brian - two questions.
    1. Do you think that the penalty rate is valid to predict winners given that 4 of the 5 games were with replacement refs?

    2. I didn't see anyone comment on it but last week your highest WP was with Carolina over Seattle? That was higher than Houston over NYJ and all others. Any idea how that came about?

  2. Eric says:

    Titans win.

    Nice call.

  3. Joel Schwartz says:

    Ypp probably. Carolina seems to struggle against physical teams -- something the math model could not assimilate into The Panthers' true chances.

  4. Joel Schwartz says:

    Ypp probably. Carolina seems to struggle against physical teams -- something the math model could not assimilate into The Panthers' true chances.

  5. Jared Doom says:

    "Carolina seems to struggle against physical teams"

    That statement was meaningless.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Does your model include the effect of coming off a bye the previous week for road teams? I believe there's a significant effect for road teams that dilutes much of their opponents home field advantage.

  7. Brian Burke says:

    No. The effect is small but measurable. If I recall, it's a couple of percentage points.

  8. SportsGuy says:

    Brian, I've never seen you describe Penalty Rate in detail here on the site. Is this only an offensive stat, and therefore the penalties need to be broken down into offensive and defensive fouls?

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