Washington Post: Where Does Robert Griffin III Stack Up So Far?

This week's article at the Post looks at what the numbers say about Griffin's hot start this season and how he compares to the rest of the rookie class.


Griffin is clearly moving the ball with both his arm and legs. He has generated just over 30 net EPA (net points) on pass plays and more than 13 net EPA on designed runs and scrambles. On a per play basis, his runs and scrambles are more potent, and by a large margin–about 50%.
The only statistical weakness Griffin’s numbers show is a high reliance on receiver yards after catch (YAC). Although his overall pass efficiency leads the league, he is 13th in “Air Yards” per attempt–passing yardage minus receiver YAC. Of the quarterbacks who have 100 attempts through week 4, Griffin has the third highest percentage of YAC. That’s not a bad thing in itself—more yards is always better...
Of course the comments at the Post quickly devolved into an argument about the presidential debate. I wonder what the WPA looked like for Obama last night. Yikes.


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10 Responses to “Washington Post: Where Does Robert Griffin III Stack Up So Far?”

  1. Anonymous says:

    haha so true... every pass he threw ended in a pick-6....

  2. Anonymous says:

    When the receivers don't need to break stride because of ball placement, I'd call YAC a strength of the QB.

  3. bigmouth says:

    President was playing prevent D last night. Look for more blitzing in the next debate.

  4. bigmouth says:

    PS: Brian, is there somewhere I can find "air yards per attempt" on the site? Or is %Deep the closest proxy available?

  5. Brian Burke says:

    It's hard to generate because the YAC data comes from a separate database with different player IDs. Maybe I can do a post on it soon.

  6. Brian Burke says:

    Weird. I just had both an Obama and a Romney ad on the site simultaneously.

  7. Andrew Foland says:

    Nate Silver at 538 has Obama's odds up 0.014 over yesterday, so WPA +0.014. Seems hard to believe, but the clock winds down day by day. For Obama with the lead, seems the time is more important than the field position...

  8. Brian Burke says:

    True. It works the same in any timed contest, but it will take at least 3-4 days for the effect of the debate to be picked up in the polls.

  9. Trent says:

    I say that we get the replacement refs to collectively govern. I have never seen NFL fans as united in anything as they were in their vitriol towards the replacement refs. In fact, they might have been the only group in America with an approval rating lower than Congress's 10%.

  10. Jonathan says:

    Obama's WPA was about -0.1 according to intrade.

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