How on earth did TEN move up 9 spots after a 38-14 divisional beatdown? Aside from turnovers, they played statistically well, especially on offense. Midway through the third quarter they were only down 7 with possession and a .31 WP, but a pick-6 quickly let the game get away. Turnovers are discounted by the model because they are so random. The biggest factor for TEN's climb up the rankings was opponent strength. HOU appears so dominant right now that just showing up on the field moves their opponent 5 spots.
CIN is climbing the ranks quickly because they put together a complete game against the Jags and their stomping at the hands of BAL is being averaged out by their performance since.
ARI is everyone's record-gazing outcome-focused darling of the moment. Their 4-0 record is deceiving, and I can already sense that they might be the post child for bad power rankings this season, like ATL was a couple years ago. First, they're 2 plays away from being 2-2. Second, their offense is terrible. They are tied for 28th in passing efficiency and dead last in run success rate.
Despite the apparently close score, SEA was soundly beaten by a very poor STL team. Russell Wilson posted just 0.2 adjusted net yards per attempt on Sunday. Laying an egg against the 23rd ranked team in week 4 will drop a team hard.
Typically, teams are bunched in the middle, so a relatively small change in their GWP can translate into a big movement in ranking. Also keep in mind that when a team's previous opponents move up or down, so does its own opponent adjustment. For example, the teams that have played CIN so far will get a bump in their rankings due to CIN's improvement. In other words, CIN is probably a better team than their previous stats had indicated. This early in the season, both of these factors can have a large effect.
With that, here are the efficiency rankings going into week 5. And as always, they are completely perfect and I personally agree completely with each and every ranking.
The inputs for the rankings are in the second table below, so if you have any questions why a team is ranked where it is, start there. Click on the table headers to sort.
Yes, that's right. The Saints are dead last.
|RANK||TEAM||LAST WK||GWP||Opp GWP||O RANK||D RANK|