Recently, we looked at how teams are too conservative with play calling when backed up against their own end zone. The main idea is that coaches want to give their team more room, and in particular, they want to give their punter more room so he does not have to stand in the back of the end zone. But, are punters actually more efficient with more room between them an the end line?
Let's look at average EPA on punts based on yards from goal. Specifically, we're going to look at inside the 3-yard line vs outside:
But more specifically, let's look at plays inside the 3 versus plays outside the three. We can do a t-test to determine whether there is a significant difference between these two cases. Average punt EPA inside the 3 (inclusive) is +0.093; average outside the 3 but inside the 10 is +0.188. The difference is significant at the 90% level but NOT at the 95% level.