Andy Reid had never lost coming off a bye week in his head-coaching career. Matt Ryan did not care. Leading the Falcons on a 8 minute 44 second opening drive, Ryan and company marched 80 yards down the field over 18 plays before hitting Drew Davis on a 15-yard touchdown. Up 7-0, the Falcons were 72% favorites to win the game and that probability would never dip below that the rest of the day.
Here is a quick look at Matty Ice's first drive -- on which he went 6 for 7 for 62 yards -- using our Markov model:
Botched Bears Field Goal
Down 19-7 to the Panthers, the Bears faced a 4th-and-5 from the Carolina 15 with just over 12 minutes left. Rather than go for it, the Bears elected to attempt a 33-yard field goal, which converts 88% of the time (and likely even higher than that for the consistent Robbie Gould). A field goal here, however, keeps the game a two-score affair and according to expected win probability, it's not a difficult call.
Keith Goldner is the creator of Drive-By Football, and Chief Analyst at numberFire.com - The leading fantasy sports analytics platform. Follow him on twitter @drivebyfootball or check out numberFire on Facebook.