2012 Game Probabilities

The game probabilities will begin next week at the New York Time's Fifth Down. I've been getting lots of email from antsy readers, so I thought a quick note here would answer them all. Team efficiency rankings will begin next week also. Because both the game predictions and rankings rely on empirical data, they need a minimum number of weeks of stats before they become meaningful or reliable.

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7 Responses to “2012 Game Probabilities”

  1. Dale says:

    Good to hear! One request, can you have them in before Thursday's games because I use them for my pick 'em league. :)

  2. Anonymous says:

    Brian, I recall you were looking at the home team advantage in your probability ratings, did you end up tweaking it in any way?

  3. Chris says:

    Playoff odds forecasts will also begin next week on nfl-forecast.com, and Brian is free to post them here if he so chooses.

  4. Brian Burke says:

    Dale, that's up to the NYT.

    I'd need more than 2 weeks of data to reliably make any conclusions about a HFA change.

    Good to hear, Chris!

  5. Anonymous says:

    Not sure if I follow your response re: HFA Brian.

    I thought I recalled you saying last year that looking at the data your model seemed to overstate the advantage teams get from home field, and that you were going to evaluate the data at the end of the year and see if it was worth changing.

    A lot of commenters also were stating that teams at home looked like they were getting too much of a boost in the probability ratings last year.

    Maybe I'm remembering this wrong...quite possible.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Ever consider using some sort of inital parameters for each team in order to do the probablities from week 1

  7. Anonymous says:

    From one data guy to another...this website is incredible.

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