Team Rankings: Week Sixteen

Instead of looking at changes in the rankings and what not this week, let's be a little more focused and take a look at where the teams on the playoff bubble sit as of this morning.

NFC East: Cowboys and Giants
Thanks to the rough and tumble ways of the NFC East, a top-10 team will likely be kept out of the playoffs. Dallas' defense is largely to thank, as is the Giants' secondary and a general inability to stop the running game. Dallas ranks a mere one spot higher, and they are ahead of the Giants in the playoff race. All is well in the NFC East; except for the Eagles, that is.

AFC West: Everyone
Every AFC West team is still in playoff contention, and San Diego's recent surge has them ranked the highest out of the bunch. Oakland isn't far behind, but division leader Denver is ranked 25th this week. In our hearts, Denver is clearly number one.

NFC Wild Card: Atlanta, Detroit, Seattle(!), Chicago, Arizona
While they are not listed above, the NFC East runner-up also has a shot at the NFC Wild Card. Detroit and Atlanta are both in should the playoffs start today, and both of them are similarly ranked on our board at 10th and 12th, respectively. Seattle's ranking may be very, very low, but they're recent performance suggests they might be a better team. Chicago's chances are slim without Cutler and Forte, and Arizona would need John Skelton to continue to be the quarterback version of Tim Tebow.

AFC Wild Card: Jets, Bengals, Titans, AFC West
The Jets may hold the Wild Card spot, but the Bengals are ranked one spot higher on our board. Oakland and San Diego could come on strong and secure a birth, and this one is going to go down to the wire.

There is a worst-case scenario in all of this. The Chiefs somehow pull out the AFC West (or the Broncos hold on), the Seahawks grab one of the NFC Wild Card spots and the Titans win the wild card. None of these teams are ranked in the top-half, and seeing them in the playoffs could be a gambler's dream.

With all that in mind, here are this week's rankings. I hope all of our readers have a happy holiday season and enjoy some much deserved time off.


RANKTEAMLAST WKGWPOpp GWPO RANKD RANK
1HOU10.760.4771
2 PIT20.740.4843
3 NO50.680.45322
4 NE40.680.51129
5 GB30.670.45228
6 PHI90.650.51912
7DAL80.630.49620
8NYG60.630.54523
9BAL70.610.50148
10DET100.570.47152
11 SD140.570.461025
12ATL110.560.481214
13 SF170.520.50176
14OAK160.520.491113
15CIN130.500.481319
16NYJ120.500.52247
17CHI150.480.50274
18MIA200.480.532115
19WAS210.480.532210
20BUF190.450.531624
21TEN180.450.481916
22ARI220.430.491821
23CAR230.420.49832
24SEA250.420.52259
25DEN240.390.512617
26CLE270.350.492326
27 KC310.340.513018
28JAC260.340.53325
29STL290.320.533111
30 TB300.300.522031
31IND320.290.512930
32MIN280.280.512827


TEAMOPASSORUNSR%OINT%OFUM%DPASSDRUNSR%DINT%PENRATE
ARI6.0434.11.26.1551.80.47
ATL6.7392.30.86.4622.90.39
BAL6.0412.21.75.5613.10.35
BUF6.1444.20.77.0543.60.36
CAR6.9453.40.77.4542.90.54
CHI5.7384.01.16.0653.00.42
CIN6.2403.00.75.8591.50.45
CLE5.2402.20.96.1512.00.40
DAL7.3442.21.16.4563.10.42
DEN5.4412.42.16.5591.90.40
DET6.6382.50.75.6603.60.53
GB8.1411.50.77.0524.90.29
HOU7.1432.11.25.1593.70.41
IND5.2392.62.17.2541.70.27
JAC4.3383.41.06.0623.00.37
KC5.6373.71.26.8584.20.45
MIA6.0402.51.66.3562.50.40
MIN5.2453.11.37.1561.30.47
NE8.1452.10.77.2543.30.37
NO7.6461.90.66.3571.50.40
NYG7.6382.81.16.8523.40.39
NYJ5.8402.92.26.0593.60.41
OAK6.9414.41.05.9542.80.65
PHI6.9505.01.56.2593.20.42
PIT7.1442.91.45.1602.20.44
SD7.2423.41.16.6584.00.39
SF5.9391.30.76.1674.10.50
SEA5.7342.91.26.1624.40.53
STL4.8371.62.06.2572.60.46
TB5.9434.01.97.5542.90.53
TEN6.2352.40.95.9581.90.51
WAS6.0424.41.56.3582.70.43
Avg6.3412.91.26.3582.90.43

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14 Responses to “Team Rankings: Week Sixteen”

  1. Jonathan says:

    NFC East:
    Dallas wins the division with either of the following:
    a) Win over NYG in week 17
    b) Win over PHI, and NYG loses to NYJ in week 16
    If Dallas wins finishes 9-7 and doesn't win the division, they could still get a wild card if four of the following five occur: 2 ATL losses, 2 DET losses, 1 SEA loss, 1 ARI loss, 1 CHI loss.

    NY Giants win division with:
    a) Two wins
    b) PHI/DAL in week 16, WAS/PHI in week 17, and NYG/PHI in week 17

    Philadelphia wins division with:
    a) Two wins PLUS NYJ/NYG in week 16 PLUS NYG/DAL in week 17

  2. Jonathan says:

    AFC West:

    1) If Denver beats KC in week 17, Denver wins.
    2) If Denver loses in week 17 but wins in week 16, OAK could win the division with 2 wins. Otherwise, Denver still wins the division.
    3a) If Denver loses both games, they are eliminated from the division.
    b) Oakland would still need 2 wins to win the division.
    c) San Diego would also need 2 wins.
    d) Kansas City could win the division with a week 16 win over Oakland PLUS one SD loss.

  3. tunesmith says:

    If Denver loses both games, there is still one way in which they could win the division:

    Oakland beats KC
    Detroit beats San Diego
    San Diego beats Oakland

  4. Anonymous says:

    Seahawks or Cardinals can get in with a lot of help. In addition to winning out, they'd have to hope their main wild card competitors (Atlanta and Detroit) don't both make it to 10 wins. So either the Falcons OR the Lions would have to lose out.

  5. Jonathan says:

    Dang, tunesmith is right.

  6. Scott says:

    Seattle makes it by going 2-0 combined with Detroit going 0-2.

    If Detroit wins at least 1 then they need Atlanta to go 0-2 and Chicago to go 2-0. They lose a 2 team tiebreaker to Atlanta because they lost to them, but they win a 3 team tiebreaker with Chicago and Atlanta. They would not win a 3 team tiebreaker between Atlanta and Dallas because they lost to both of them.

  7. Mike says:

    Something I'm not sure I understand... PIT and DET are almost identical in team EPA and WPA, with similar strength of schedule, but are 9 spots apart. Is there something I'm missing, or a link to an explanation of how the ratings are calculated?

  8. Sam's Hideout says:

    EPA and WPA are based on play-by-play outcomes conditioned on game situation, while the ranking in the first table is by GWP (Generic Win Percentage), which is based on statistical summaries of play-by-play outcomes (without the conditioning on game situation), as listed in the second table.

    So the statistics GWP is based on are things like yards/pass, interception percentage, etc, while EPA takes into account location on field, down and distance, and WPA takes into account current point difference and time left in game.

  9. Sam's Hideout says:

    EPA and WPA describe what happened on the field in the past, while GWP is intended to predict likelihood of winning in the future, based on the statistical measures which correlate well with future wins.

  10. Jonathan says:

    Feel free to double check, but I've got:

    Chicago needs 2 wins PLUS two of the following: Detroit goes 0-2, Atlanta goes 0-2, Seattle loses at least once.

    Arizona needs two wins plus two of: Detroit goes 0-2, Atlanta goes 0-2, Chicago loses at least once. They still face Seattle H2H.

  11. Anonymous says:

    My favorite scenario: The Chiefs beat Oakland and Denver, the Chargers lose to Detroit but beat Oakland, the Broncos lose to Buffalo (in addition to KC), the Jets lose to NYG and Miami, Cincinnati loses to Arizona and Baltimore.

    Outcome: Chiefs win AFC West, Chargers win Wild Card.

  12. Anonymous says:

    And, oh yeah, Tennessee loses one of their remaining two games...

  13. Mike says:

    Thanks Sam's Hideout, that helps!

  14. Anonymous says:

    49ers record against teams ranked above them is 4-2. How has this ranking algorithm worked in past years?

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