WP: The Record Keeps Skipping

This week's post at the Washington Post's Insider looks how badly the Redskins tend to fade as the season progresses and injuries accumulate. Plus:

  • How much WP did kicking a FG on 4th and 2 from the Panther's 13 cost?
  • Can Torain and Helu make up for the loss of Hightower?
  • How does Fred Davis compare to Chris Cooley?
  • Can Santana Moss be replaced in the lineup?

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4 Responses to “WP: The Record Keeps Skipping”

  1. Ian B says:

    I second one of the WP commenter's views about how important pass-blocking is for a RB's playing time. Frank Gore played so much for the niners last year because he was significantly better at pass blocking than the other guys. Not sure if that's strategically a good reason to allocate playing time to a RB, but it's what the coaches and sports writers say.

  2. Anonymous says:

    The only issue I have with the 4th and 2 analysis is that, while teams in general might have a 60% chance of converting 4th and 2 in the red zone, did the Beck-led Redskins have a 60% chance? I don't think the Redskins have a league-average offense (correct me if I'm wrong). What is the "break-even" point (i.e. what's the probability of converting 4th and 2) where kicking the FG and going for it are a toss up? If it's like 20%, then, sure, kicking was the wrong decision. If it's 55%, then probably kicking is better...

  3. Brian Burke says:

    Except for the very, very worst and very, very best NFL teams, their chances of success on any one play are very close. Not identical, but very close.

    It's only when the small differences in relative success rates accumulate over several dozen plays in a game do we even begin to be able to separate the better teams from the worse teams.

  4. Steve Freeman says:

    BB: Good article, but do you account for the Redskins (or any other team) being stretched too thin in your power rankings and win probability models?

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