Week Eight Game Preview: Detroit at Tim Tebow

The Weekly League diverts from its normal format to look at the Detroit Lions-Denver Broncos contest in depth.

Detroit at Denver | Sunday, October 30 | 4:05pm ET
Four Factors

The Obviously Interesting Thing About This Game
The obviously interesting thing about this game is how Tim Tebow will be making his second start for the Broncos in as many weeks -- after playing a large part in Denver's come-from-behind, overtime victory last week against Miami.

Regarding the Aforementioned Victory
While Denver did ultimately win that game against Miami, there's a decided possibility that they wouldn't have been losing as hard -- or at all -- were that same Tim Tebow more productive through the first 3.5 quarters of the game.

Regarding Those 3.5 Quarters
If I'm doing this correctly, it would appear as though Tebow was only 4-for-12 passing over the first 3.5 quarters, for 49 yards (4.1 net yards per attempt).

Regarding the Last 5:23
After that rather uninspired "start" to the game, Tebow was 9-for-14 with 115 yards (8.1 net yards per attempt) over the final 5:23 of regulation.

Tebow's Overall Line
Overall, Tebow finished with a 2.1 EPA (12th among all Week Seven quarterbacks), a 0.05 EPA/P (also 12th), and 3.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt (14th). He also rushed for 65 yards on just eight attempts (8.1 yards per).

What We Learned About Tebow
Perhaps nothing. If anything, last week's game appears to have confirmed what we know about him -- i.e. that he's a big and fast person who lacks a entirely accurate arm. And also that he does appear to be a particularly excellent competitor.

Another Argument for Tim Tebow
Another Argument for Tim Tebow is the name of a post by the very intelligent Keith Goldner that appeared in these pages earlier in the week. Among the intelligent comments Goldner makes, one of them concerns how the Broncos would probably to well to allow Tebow to run. If he could average something north of five or six yards per attempt, that would actually make sense.

On How Detroit Is Playing, Too
The Detroit Lions are also playing in this game, too.

Detroit's Defense, Generally Speaking
An important thing to note about the Lions is how they currently sport the second-best defense in the NFL per GWP, whereas the Dolphins -- i.e. Denver's opponents from last week -- currently are 28th best.

Detroit's Defense, In Particular
Detroit defensive tackle and huge man Ndamukong Suh is third among all DTs with an EPA+ of 19.2. Linebacker Stephen Tulloch and corners Chris Houston and Eric Wright are all among the league leaders at their respective positions (again, per EPA+).

The Four Factors you see for each game represent each team's performance in four important categories (offensive pass efficiency and run success rate and also opponent pass efficiency and defensive run success rate) relative to league average (where 100 is league average and anything above is good).

Along with the Four Factors, you'll see two other headings: Generic Win Probability (GWP) and Game Probability (PROB). The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. The most recent GWPs for all teams here. The PROB is each respective team's chance of winning this particular contest. Your host, Brian Burke, provides PROBs to the New York Times each week starting in Week Five. This week's numbers (along with methodology) can be found here.

A glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.

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1 Responses to “Week Eight Game Preview: Detroit at Tim Tebow”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Title = win

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