Live NCAA Basketball Win Probability

Live win probability for the NCAA basketball championship games is available now at wp.advancednflstats.com/bball. (Final games are here. Games from the previous day are here.)

This is something I put together a couple years ago, and I've dusted it off for the tournament. The model's approach is very similar to my football model. Basketball is a much simpler sport, though. There's no field position, down, or distance in basketball. Aside from possession, score and time remaining are really the only significant statistical factors.

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5 Responses to “Live NCAA Basketball Win Probability”

  1. Matt says:

    It seems to fluctuate way more than football, I am assuming its built the same way as football, actual historical percentages?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Yes. I have a post somewhere about how they were built, but can't seem to find it. The only real thin spot in the model is in the endgame--the last 60 seconds or so. The play-by-play doesn't have data on who has possession or whether teams are in the bonus, etc.

  3. Matt says:

    The last two minutes on the graphs could be someones heartbeat at these games, got to love March Madness!!

  4. MattyP says:

    Thinking out loud here - I'm wondering if there's possibly for a momentum effect in college BB?

    In addition to the to the possession, score and time remaining, could the score from 1 minute prior also be statistically significant?

  5. Les says:

    For another look at college basketball win probability see
    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/in-game_win_probabilities/

    Les

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