Game Probabilities - Week 17

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the Fifth Down. This week I put blame where blame is due for the prediction model's under-performing season...squarely on the shoulders of Norv Turner.

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3 Responses to “Game Probabilities - Week 17”

  1. makewayhomer says:


    it seems you don't post the actual results of the model's accuracy for this year or past years. any reason for that?

  2. Tarr says:

    A simple "did the percentage favorite win" measure is not really meaningful in evaluating a model that's producing percentage chances. I would be interested in seeing a root mean square error for this prediction model, though.

  3. makewayhomer says:

    yeah RMSE is surely better. but it would be good to see something.

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