Weekly Game Probabilities - Week 9

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also highlight the KC-OAK game and take a look at how coming off a bye week may give the edge to a couple teams this week.

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2 Responses to “Weekly Game Probabilities - Week 9”

  1. actuary9999 says:

    I think you might be able to use credibility theory to enhance the accuracy of your game probabilities. Specifically, you could use a credibility-weighted blend of prior and current season stats to maximize the accuracy of your game probabilities.

    As an anecdote to support this, I participate in a weekly confidence pool* with about 40 coworkers. Since week 4, I have been closely following your game probabilities as a guideline for my picks. In week 4, I finished almost dead last, but have gradually improved each week. Last week, I would have finished first had the Chiefs not lost at the last minute. The probabilities, relative to human intuition, seem to have gone from inferior to superior. This supports the notion that using credibility theory may enhance the accuracy of your probabilities in earlier weeks of the season.


    *If you're not familiar with a confidence pool, it goes like this (at least for the one I participate in): You select a winner for each game each week of the NFL season. You rank your selections by the relative confidence you have in each selection (my most confident selection would be a 16, 2nd most confident would be a 15, etc.). When the results of the week's games have been determined, your score is the sum of your rankings for the games you have picked correctly.

  2. Brian Burke says:

    I'm not familiar with credibility theory, but I'll look into it.

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