Welcome Back

The 2010 season starts tonight, and Advanced NFL Stats returns in mid-season form. I'm going into a contract year, and I'm in the best shape of my career. I had a great off-season working out at the team facilities. I've finally put my messy personal problems and last year's four-game suspension behind me, and my coaching staff is expecting big things. So draft Advanced NFL Stats first and put it #1 in your RSS reader.

The Win Probability graphs will be going strong again with a few enhancements. The model has been tweaked, with more refined estimates when the ball is near the goal line. I’ve added a live update of the Expected Points of the current drive. It’s a little abstract, but it gives a feel for the impact of events in the game. (That sack on 3rd and 4 just cost us 3 net points!). I also plan to add the current probability of a TD and probability of a FG at some point.

Also, during the last couple weeks of the playoffs last season, I added a live chat/comment capability under each game’s graph. We had a lot of fun with it, and I’m bringing it back this season. The chat from last year’s Super Bowl was great with all its twists and turns. I don’t expect every game to get flooded with instant commentary and analysis, but for the bigger national games I know readers will add their two cents.

Rest assured game predictions will be back this season as well, but we’ll need some data from the first three weeks of the season before they’ll be meaningful. Look for them starting prior to week 4.

Also, contrary to rumor, I have canceled my planned reality show centered around my exciting life. The pilot screened very well, but my lawyers strongly advised against it.

If you missed it, during the off-season I added individual player stats for offensive skill players and all defensive players to the site, so you can look up players' WPA, EPA, and other innovative statistics going back to the 2000 season. Here's a glossary of the various stats used throughout.

Lastly, for the hard core stat heads out there, stay posted for an announcement relaunching the Advanced NFL Stats Community site, where anyone with a spreadsheet and an internet connection can make use of the torrent of data I unleashed and publish your own football research.

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8 Responses to “Welcome Back”

  1. johnbart says:

    Looking forward to the new season. Thanks for all your hard work.

  2. Robert says:

    You blog is a must read for any football fan. Thanks for you acumen.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Where can I find your box score game by game data, that you use for your logit regression model?

  4. Anonymous says:

    Hi Brian, where can i find the Game Probabilities for round 1?

  5. Anonymous says:

    Looking forward to another football season.

    Just wanted to say I really enjoy visiting this website and thanks for all your hard work.

    Keep up the great work!

  6. Anonymous says:

    Brian, great that win prob is back. Have you modified the leverage Index at all since last year?

  7. Anonymous says:

    Does those tweaks to win prob also apply to the past games from 2000-2009

  8. Brian Burke says:

    not yet.

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