Team Playoff Probabilities - Week 15

Courtesy of NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff forecasts. The tables below do not include results from this week's Thursday game.

The Ravens have strengthened their position in the AFC, while the battle in the NFC appears to be between the Giants and Cowboys.


These playoff probabilities are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed. The probabilities are rounded as percentages to make the table easier to read.




AFC EAST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
NE
89
9
2
0
NYJ
4
57
39
1
MIA
8
34
58
1
BUF
0
0
2
98
AFC NORTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
CIN
97
3
0
0
BAL
3
90
7
0
PIT
0
7
93
0
CLE
0
0
0
100
AFC SOUTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
IND
100
0
0
0
JAC
0
69
23
8
TEN
0
17
47
36
HOU
0
14
29
57
AFC WEST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
SD
94
6
0
0
DEN
6
94
0
0
OAK
0
0
88
12
KC
0
0
12
88
NFC EAST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
PHI
76
21
3
0
DAL
21
30
49
0
NYG
3
49
49
0
WAS
0
0
0
100
NFC NORTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
MIN
98
2
0
0
GB
2
98
0
0
CHI
0
0
100
0
DET
0
0
0
100
NFC SOUTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
NO
100
0
0
0
ATL
0
86
14
0
CAR
0
14
86
0
TB
0
0
0
100
NFC WEST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
ARI
98
2
0
0
SF
2
96
2
0
SEA
0
2
98
0
STL
0
0
0
100




AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Total
IND
100
0
0
0
0
0
100
SD
0
87
6
1
5
0
100
CIN
0
7
35
55
0
0
98
NE
0
2
53
33
0
3
91
DEN
0
4
1
0
72
19
97
NYJ
0
0
2
1
1
12
17
MIA
0
0
1
6
0
6
14
BAL
0
0
1
2
18
35
55
JAC
0
0
0
0
4
21
25
BUF
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PIT
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
HOU
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
TEN
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
CLE
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
KC
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OAK
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Total
NO
98
2
0
0
0
0
100
MIN
2
86
10
2
1
0
100
PHI
0
10
61
4
7
14
96
ARI
0
1
20
77
0
0
98
GB
0
1
0
0
83
13
98
DAL
0
0
9
13
1
28
50
NYG
0
0
0
2
8
38
49
SF
0
0
0
2
0
6
8
ATL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CAR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
WAS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CHI
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
DET
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TB
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
STL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SEA
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

  • Spread The Love
  • Digg This Post
  • Tweet This Post
  • Stumble This Post
  • Submit This Post To Delicious
  • Submit This Post To Reddit
  • Submit This Post To Mixx

7 Responses to “Team Playoff Probabilities - Week 15”

  1. Anonymous says:

    If the Vikings have a 2% chance of coming in second in the NFC North and a 100% chance of making the playoffs, then shouldn't they have a 2% chance of getting the 5th (or 6th) seed, rather than 1%?

  2. Anonymous says:

    My guess would be that the probability of a 5 seed for the Vikings is between 1% and 1.49% which rounds to 1%. The probability of a 6 seed must be less than .5% and therefore it is not shown in the NFC Seeding Chart. If the probability of the 5th and 6th seeds are summed they'd be greater than 1.5% and rounded to the 2% value in the NFC North chart.

  3. Chris Connett says:

    So running my own simulations with the software, it would seem that the Jets *absolutely need* Pittsburgh to off Miami in week 17. Sweeping alone isn't enough.

  4. Anonymous says:

    Vikings can actually get a number 6th seed.

    If:
    1. Vikings lose all their remaining games to go (11-5).
    2. Green Bay wins all of their remaining games to go (12-4).
    3. Dallas also wins all remaining games to go (11-5).
    4. Philadelphia wins two of remaining three games (losing only the last to Dallas) to go 11-5.

    In this case, Dallas wins the NFC East division tiebreaker as they have already beat the Eagles this season. Vikings/Eagles would tie in conference record (9-3 each), while Eagles would then take the 'common games' category as vs. 49ers, Bears, Giants, Panthers the Eagles would be 5-0 while Vikings would be 2-3.

    Even if the Vikings suffer this epic collapse (which seems pretty unlikely the way they are playing and the way Carolina and the Packers are playing) Dallas has to beat the Saints this week, while Green Bay travels to Pittsburgh AND Arizona. Philly has also got to beat Denver though that's at home so slightly more likely!

  5. Jonathan says:

    Chris, why would the Jets need Miami to lose week 17? The Phins play 7-loss teams in weeks 15 and 16, couldn't the Jets be fine if the Phins lost one of those two games instead?

  6. Chris Connett says:

    Oh maybe. It's annoyingly slow to rerun some of these simulations. I guess I wasn't very thorough.

  7. Brett says:

    I'm surprised you have the Patriots as a 53-35 favorite to win the #3 seed over the Bengals. Right now the Bengals have a 1-game lead and they have a better record in Conference and Common games. This must be based purely on power ratings and strength of remaining schedule. Also, the Bengals could really make things interesting by beating the Chargers this week.

Leave a Reply