Team Playoff Probabilities - Week 13

Courtesy of NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff forecasts. The tables below do not include results from the Thursday games.

It looks like the AFC wildcard picture has changed with the Jaguars' and Texans' losses, and the Ravens' win over the Steelers. Although the Ravens currently hold the 6th seed (I think), they're projected to have a 40% chance of holding on to it.

The NFC wildcard picture has changed too. The Packers' and 49ers' chances have improved while the Giants' and Falcons' chances have taken a hit.

These playoff probabilities are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed. The probabilities are rounded as percentages to make the table easier to read.


AFC EAST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
NE
98
2
0
0
NYJ
1
65
24
10
MIA
1
21
53
25
BUF
0
12
22
65
AFC NORTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
CIN
83
15
2
0
PIT
12
48
40
0
BAL
5
37
58
0
CLE
0
0
0
100
AFC SOUTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
IND
100
0
0
0
JAC
0
58
23
18
TEN
0
18
46
36
HOU
0
24
31
45
AFC WEST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
SD
78
22
0
0
DEN
22
78
0
0
KC
0
0
56
44
OAK
0
0
44
56
NFC EAST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
DAL
51
30
20
0
PHI
33
42
25
0
NYG
16
28
55
0
WAS
0
0
0
100
NFC NORTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
MIN
100
0
0
0
GB
0
98
2
0
CHI
0
2
98
1
DET
0
0
1
99
NFC SOUTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
NO
100
0
0
0
ATL
0
92
8
0
CAR
0
8
91
1
TB
0
0
1
99
NFC WEST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
ARI
83
17
0
0
SF
17
74
9
0
SEA
0
9
91
0
STL
0
0
0
100




AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Total
IND
99
1
0
0
0
0
100
SD
0
51
18
9
12
6
96
NE
0
18
34
46
0
0
98
CIN
0
16
32
35
2
8
93
DEN
0
12
7
3
32
26
80
PIT
0
2
8
3
30
21
63
BAL
0
0
1
3
16
18
39
NYJ
0
0
0
1
0
3
4
MIA
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
JAC
0
0
0
0
8
11
19
BUF
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
HOU
0
0
0
0
1
5
5
TEN
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
CLE
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
KC
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OAK
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Total
NO
86
14
0
0
0
0
100
MIN
14
81
4
1
0
0
100
DAL
0
1
36
13
9
22
81
ARI
0
2
22
60
1
2
86
PHI
0
2
29
3
19
24
76
NYG
0
0
8
8
9
20
45
GB
0
0
0
0
60
25
85
SF
0
0
1
16
1
3
21
ATL
0
0
0
0
1
4
6
SEA
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CHI
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CAR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
WAS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
DET
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TB
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
STL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

  • Spread The Love
  • Digg This Post
  • Tweet This Post
  • Stumble This Post
  • Submit This Post To Delicious
  • Submit This Post To Reddit
  • Submit This Post To Mixx

4 Responses to “Team Playoff Probabilities - Week 13”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Can we get more significant digits than this? It would be nice to know when a number is ACTUALLY 0 instead of just MIGHT AS WELL BE 0.

  2. Becephalus says:

    I am not sure that is really informative. people have real problems with falling for the illusion of precision.

  3. Chris says:

    Anon had a decent point. The game efficiencies probably aren't accurate enough to tell the difference between 30% and 30.5%.

    But when you get down to less than 1% we can definitely tell the difference between anything above zero and true zero.

    I show two more decimal places on my website. I run 5000 simulations for those tables. Teams that have odds of making the playoffs of 0.02 would represent 1 occurrence in 5000 simulations. If more accuracy than that is needed, you can run the software on my website multiple times (I use 5000 simulations there as well) and average the results.

  4. Anonymous says:

    I have been trying to calculate edge percentages since week 6 and have been awfully unsuccessful. The Edge mentioned in Week 5 that you simply take the "Straight up Odd" and multiply by the Game Win Probability to get the edge.

    I have no idea where to find the "straight up odd" because whenever I use the moneyline or some sort of calculation from it, it always ends up below one or well above one for those with high win probabilities...Can someone please help with the calculations?

Leave a Reply