Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 14

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort:

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK
1
NO
1
0.82
0.45
1
15
2
IND
2
0.78
0.48
5
5
3
SD
3
0.77
0.45
2
20
4
PHI
5
0.73
0.48
10
3
5
DEN
9
0.71
0.54
16
1
6
NE
6
0.71
0.52
4
19
7
NYG
10
0.70
0.54
8
6
8
PIT
4
0.69
0.45
7
10
9
DAL
7
0.69
0.48
3
22
10
GB
11
0.68
0.40
11
4
11
MIN
8
0.61
0.42
6
21
12
BAL
12
0.58
0.54
14
7
13
NYJ
14
0.57
0.49
24
2
14
CIN
13
0.54
0.46
18
8
15
HOU
15
0.54
0.52
9
23
16
WAS
17
0.53
0.50
17
12
17
ARI
19
0.52
0.48
12
18
18
TEN
16
0.51
0.58
15
16
19
JAC
18
0.50
0.47
13
26
20
SF
20
0.43
0.48
21
9
21
BUF
21
0.39
0.47
26
11
22
CHI
23
0.37
0.45
22
14
23
CAR
25
0.36
0.49
28
13
24
MIA
26
0.36
0.56
20
25
25
ATL
22
0.35
0.53
19
30
26
SEA
24
0.35
0.46
23
17
27
TB
27
0.27
0.56
27
24
28
STL
28
0.24
0.51
25
27
29
KC
29
0.21
0.59
31
28
30
OAK
30
0.21
0.59
30
29
31
DET
31
0.17
0.52
29
31
32
CLE
32
0.13
0.55
32
32

And here are the sortable raw team efficiency stats. Passing, running, and penalties are in yards per relevant play. Fumbles and interception stats are in turnovers per relevant play.


TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE
ARI
6.7
4.1
2.6
1.5
6.2
4.4
2.8
0.42
ATL
5.9
4.1
3.2
0.8
7.2
4.3
2.0
0.32
BAL
6.2
4.2
2.7
0.8
6.3
3.5
3.6
0.49
BUF
5.4
4.2
4.4
0.9
5.5
4.9
5.5
0.39
CAR
5.3
4.8
5.6
1.7
6.0
4.6
4.7
0.34
CHI
5.9
3.9
4.7
1.4
5.8
4.4
2.8
0.44
CIN
6.1
4.0
2.7
1.2
5.6
3.8
3.3
0.43
CLE
4.3
3.7
4.0
0.9
7.5
4.5
1.6
0.34
DAL
7.2
5.0
1.7
0.8
6.0
4.2
1.9
0.45
DEN
6.1
4.4
2.1
1.0
5.2
3.9
2.6
0.35
DET
5.1
3.9
5.3
0.9
7.5
4.1
1.9
0.41
GB
6.7
4.3
1.7
0.5
5.4
3.6
5.4
0.48
HOU
7.2
3.4
3.2
1.3
6.3
4.6
2.6
0.48
IND
7.7
3.8
2.6
0.5
5.5
4.2
3.1
0.29
JAC
6.3
4.6
1.5
1.0
6.8
4.0
2.9
0.32
KC
4.7
3.7
2.3
2.1
7.4
4.4
2.1
0.31
MIA
5.1
4.5
2.9
0.9
7.1
4.1
3.2
0.31
MIN
7.0
4.2
1.2
1.1
6.0
4.0
2.2
0.37
NE
7.4
4.0
2.1
0.6
6.2
4.3
3.6
0.39
NO
8.4
4.6
2.6
0.8
5.8
4.5
5.1
0.41
NYG
7.0
4.3
2.7
1.3
5.9
4.0
2.4
0.41
NYJ
5.7
4.7
6.0
1.1
4.9
4.0
3.1
0.32
OAK
4.6
4.0
3.6
1.0
7.2
4.6
2.4
0.40
PHI
6.7
4.5
2.2
0.7
5.3
3.8
4.7
0.48
PIT
7.3
4.3
3.0
1.0
5.7
3.6
1.9
0.40
SD
8.1
3.3
1.6
0.2
5.7
4.4
2.7
0.31
SF
5.4
4.3
2.3
0.8
6.2
3.6
2.4
0.39
SEA
5.5
3.9
2.0
1.2
6.2
4.3
2.2
0.39
STL
5.0
4.5
2.9
0.9
6.9
4.6
2.2
0.44
TB
5.3
4.2
5.2
1.9
6.8
4.8
3.8
0.36
TEN
5.8
5.3
2.9
1.8
6.7
4.2
2.4
0.38
WAS
6.2
3.9
3.1
0.8
5.8
4.2
2.2
0.36
Avg
6.2
4.2
3.0
1.0
6.2
4.2
3.0
0.39

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6 Responses to “Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 14”

  1. RZ says:

    I see the Bucs are the best "worst team" in the NFL.

  2. Anonymous says:

    what the raiders team efficiency with Bruce taking the snaps?

  3. Anonymous says:

    With Indianapolis expected to rest their starters later in the season, how will putting in basically a whole new team affect their efficiency ratings and their win probabilities. Obviously you can't use their previous success to predict how the cheerleaders will do when they get in the game. Will the model restart basically and push the Colt's efficiency back towards the league average?

  4. James says:

    So would you say there's a clear elite (1-3), a strong (4-10), an average (11-19), a below average (20-26) and awful (27-32) grouping?

    Also, how confident are you now that this is an accurate portrayal of a team's true ability? Or in other words, do you expect a team to deviate from it's current GWP much from now until the end of the season?

  5. Michael says:

    Is there a way for you to calculate the impact of penalties on a team rather than merely measuring total yards or frequency (as you do here).

  6. Jero D says:

    Noticed the penalty rates for both BAL and GB are lower than what I have calculated. The other 30 teams I have spot on. I happened to be at Lambeau on Monday and noticed quite a bit of yellow flying about.

    I will triple check my numbers.

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