Games of the Week

Game of the Week: OAK 27 at PIT 24 (6.7 Excitement Index)
Runner Up: NE 21 at MIA 22 (6.2 EI)

Comeback of the week: NO 33 at WAS 30 (100 Comeback Factor)

Excitement Index (EI): The sum of the WP graph's movement throughout a game. Games with large swings in WP will end up with large EIs, while blow-out games where the WP quickly climbs to 0.95 for one team will have smaller EIs. This accounts for close games because WP is sensitive to how close the score is.

Comeback Factor (CBF): based on the lowest win probability at any point for the ultimate winner. To make bigger comebacks have bigger CBFs, I made CBF be the inverse of the lowest WP. For example, a 100 CBF means the winner lowest WP was 0.01.

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4 Responses to “Games of the Week”

  1. Anonymous says:

    As a steelers fan, i found nothing exciting about that game.

  2. Jeff Clarke says:

    As a Redskins fan, I am glad I wasn't able to see the second half. It was painful even reading about it.

    I sort of wanted to talk about the key play of the first half. Brees throws an interception. Redskins fumble and Saints return for a TD. The WP shifted considerably twice within that play.

    That play highlighted another interesting point. I think this is one of the main reason why the Saints are undefeated. They make aggressive calls where other teams would be conservative. On 3rd and 26 right before halftime, I think most coaches wouldn't even bother attempting to get the first down. They'd call a draw up the middle for 3 yards. This makes it somewhat difficult to calculate probabilities for success when you do try. It still seems like whatever you feel about 4th down, teams should at least "go for it" on 3rd down more often.

  3. zlionsfan says:

    Jeff, I think that's a good point ... there are probably a lot of series in the NFL where the HC/OC/both basically throw in the towel and call damage-control plays, not even plays with a small likelihood of getting the first down. (The draw up the middle is the most common one, I think.) So a defeat on second down turns into a punt. They'd almost be more honest if they punted on third down.

    On the other side, it seems like after the much-debated Belichick decision, suddenly other coaches are realizing the value of possessing the ball and are going for it on fourth down. Maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see, but it does feel like the last few weeks are what we'd expect to see if coaches were making decisions based on maximizing success rather than minimizing failure.

  4. DM says:

    I think what highlights that the Saints are ultra-agressive this season is that, on at least three occasions (twice yesterday, once at the end of the 1st half vs Miami) the Saints lined up for a FG and the opposing team called a timeout... and the Saints wound up going for it.

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