Game Probabilities - Week 17

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also discuss home field advantage when a dome team visits a cold climate.

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3 Responses to “Game Probabilities - Week 17”

  1. Jonathan says:

    What is your definition of "cold weather city" in this analysis? Do you have a list of "cold weather cities" handy?

    More relevant to the current playoffs, is Philadelphia considered a cold weather city?

    Is there a similar home field advantage for cold weather teams visiting domes?

  2. Jeff Clarke says:

    Off topic...

    I know this was college and not the NFL, but Texas Tech went for it on 4th and 5 and then on 4th and 4 up by 3 with 2:00 to go in easy field goal range. Very few people would have done that. Of course since it worked, they won't get the full Belichick treatment. I think its just interesting that coaches are getting a lot bolder.

    Side note: Tech went on to score another touchdown after the second conversion. They were already at the point where they could have knelt out the clock. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

  3. James says:

    That's typical Tech behavior. Once Leach got there (yes, I realize he's not the coach any more), they frequently went for it on fourth down and ran up the score against other teams. Normally it's defended to boost their stats/rankings, but I'm not sure what good it does in a bowl game.

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