Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 12

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort:

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK
1
IND
1
0.80
0.47
2
5
2
NO
2
0.79
0.42
1
14
3
NE
4
0.74
0.50
4
12
4
SD
8
0.74
0.51
5
17
5
PIT
3
0.74
0.47
9
4
6
PHI
6
0.71
0.49
10
1
7
NYG
10
0.70
0.50
7
9
8
DAL
5
0.67
0.49
3
21
9
MIN
11
0.67
0.41
6
22
10
DEN
7
0.66
0.57
16
3
11
CIN
9
0.62
0.52
15
6
12
GB
12
0.62
0.42
11
8
13
BAL
13
0.61
0.53
12
11
14
HOU
14
0.54
0.47
8
26
15
NYJ
15
0.53
0.50
24
2
16
ARI
16
0.50
0.47
17
18
17
WAS
19
0.49
0.45
19
10
18
ATL
18
0.45
0.55
13
27
19
TEN
20
0.44
0.55
18
20
20
JAC
17
0.44
0.45
14
30
21
SF
23
0.42
0.51
25
7
22
CAR
21
0.41
0.50
26
13
23
CHI
22
0.41
0.47
20
16
24
MIA
25
0.40
0.56
21
23
25
SEA
24
0.37
0.48
23
19
26
BUF
26
0.35
0.46
27
15
27
STL
27
0.26
0.53
22
28
28
KC
29
0.23
0.55
29
29
29
TB
28
0.22
0.59
30
25
30
OAK
30
0.20
0.57
31
24
31
DET
31
0.17
0.51
28
32
32
CLE
32
0.12
0.54
32
31


And here are the sortable raw team efficiency stats. Passing, running, and penalties are in yards per relevant play. Fumbles and interception stats are in turnovers per relevant play.


TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE
ARI
6.5
4.1
3.0
1.4
6.1
4.3
2.9
0.45
ATL
6.2
4.4
3.5
0.8
6.9
4.5
2.3
0.34
BAL
6.6
4.2
2.4
0.6
6.4
3.5
3.4
0.53
BUF
5.5
4.0
4.5
0.9
5.7
4.9
5.1
0.45
CAR
5.4
5.0
4.9
1.9
5.8
4.7
3.6
0.35
CHI
6.0
4.0
4.7
1.3
5.8
4.3
3.1
0.46
CIN
6.3
4.0
2.6
1.3
5.8
3.8
3.3
0.39
CLE
4.2
3.7
5.0
1.1
7.3
4.6
1.9
0.36
DAL
7.1
5.0
2.1
1.0
6.0
4.1
1.9
0.48
DEN
6.0
4.4
1.8
1.3
5.6
4.0
2.4
0.36
DET
5.2
3.9
4.7
1.0
7.5
4.5
1.7
0.44
GB
6.6
4.5
1.5
0.6
5.8
3.7
4.5
0.54
HOU
7.4
3.3
2.5
1.3
6.2
4.8
2.4
0.44
IND
7.9
3.8
2.6
0.6
5.5
4.1
2.9
0.31
JAC
6.2
4.8
1.8
1.0
7.1
4.2
2.7
0.30
KC
4.9
3.6
1.9
1.7
7.1
4.5
2.1
0.33
MIA
5.0
4.7
2.0
0.9
6.7
4.1
2.8
0.33
MIN
7.2
4.2
0.9
0.9
5.9
3.9
2.0
0.34
NE
7.2
4.0
1.5
0.7
5.6
4.4
4.1
0.40
NO
8.0
4.8
2.8
0.9
5.5
4.6
5.4
0.39
NYG
7.1
4.3
2.7
0.9
5.6
4.3
2.7
0.45
NYJ
5.8
4.7
6.4
1.2
5.3
4.0
2.1
0.35
OAK
4.2
3.9
4.5
1.2
6.7
4.4
2.4
0.36
PHI
6.5
4.6
2.3
0.8
5.3
3.9
4.6
0.48
PIT
7.1
4.2
2.9
1.1
5.4
3.4
2.2
0.40
SD
7.3
3.5
1.9
0.0
5.8
4.2
3.1
0.32
SF
5.2
4.5
2.9
0.7
6.4
3.5
2.9
0.42
SEA
5.7
3.7
2.3
1.2
6.3
4.3
2.3
0.39
STL
5.2
4.6
2.7
1.1
7.2
4.7
2.5
0.43
TB
4.8
4.2
4.9
2.3
7.1
4.9
4.3
0.35
TEN
5.6
5.3
3.5
1.8
6.6
4.4
2.8
0.39
WAS
6.0
4.0
2.9
1.0
5.3
4.4
2.2
0.40
Avg
6.1
4.2
3.0
1.1
6.2
4.2
3.0
0.40

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2 Responses to “Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 12”

  1. boooeee says:

    You've probably addressed this already, but are you still regressing the year to date team stats to the league average? If so, how big of an adjustment is it at this point in the season?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    All the regression to the mean adjustments have flushed out of the system.

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