The efficiency rankings are beginning to settle down approaching the midpoint of the season. Big movers include San Diego climbing from 8 to 5 and Arizona dropping like a rock from 11 to 19.
The Cards played poorly against a bad team, and most teams are tightly bunched around the league average. So it doesn't take much movement in GWP to drop a number of spots from the top to the bottom of the "pack."
There continues to be a correlation between opponent-adjusted team strength and strength-schedule. This indicates that the death of parity is greatly exaggerated. It seems that so far this year there have been a disproportionate number of games between the very best and very worst teams. Ironically, this may indicate parity is stronger than ever. The scheduling system is supposed to give the top teams two extra games against other division leaders, and the bottom teams two extra games against the other dwellers. If a dweller or two turns into an elite team, or if an elite team suddenly becomes a doormat, the current disparity is what we'd get. Besides, parity isn't just about keeping teams from having very good or very bad records in any one year. It's also about making sure they aren't the same teams year after year.
The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.
Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.
GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.
Click on the table headers to sort:
|RANK||TEAM||LAST WK||GWP||Opp GWP||O RANK||D RANK|
And here are the sortable raw team efficiency stats. Passing, running, and penalties are in yards per relevant play. Fumbles and interception stats are in turnovers per relevant play.