Efficiency Rankings - Week 10

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.


Click on the table headers to sort:

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK
1
NO
2
0.82
0.46
1
13
2
IND
1
0.81
0.42
3
4
3
DEN
3
0.80
0.56
10
1
4
PIT
4
0.78
0.49
4
5
5
NE
7
0.73
0.48
5
16
6
DAL
6
0.72
0.48
2
24
7
SD
5
0.70
0.47
7
14
8
PHI
9
0.67
0.44
15
3
9
CIN
13
0.65
0.56
13
6
10
NYG
11
0.64
0.48
9
9
11
GB
8
0.61
0.38
11
11
12
MIN
10
0.59
0.44
8
22
13
NYJ
14
0.59
0.49
21
2
14
HOU
15
0.57
0.48
6
27
15
BAL
12
0.57
0.55
12
17
16
ATL
16
0.49
0.54
14
23
17
ARI
19
0.47
0.52
17
15
18
CHI
17
0.46
0.46
18
19
19
JAC
20
0.44
0.44
16
31
20
TEN
23
0.44
0.60
19
18
21
SEA
21
0.43
0.46
22
10
22
SF
18
0.41
0.50
24
8
23
MIA
22
0.41
0.63
20
21
24
CAR
24
0.39
0.51
27
7
25
WAS
25
0.37
0.37
25
20
26
BUF
26
0.35
0.48
28
12
27
STL
27
0.23
0.48
23
29
28
TB
31
0.21
0.56
26
30
29
OAK
28
0.20
0.60
31
25
30
KC
30
0.17
0.54
30
32
31
DET
29
0.16
0.54
29
26
32
CLE
32
0.13
0.60
32
28


And here are the sortable raw team efficiency stats. Passing, running, and penalties are in yards per relevant play. Fumbles and interception stats are in turnovers per relevant play.


TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE
ARI
6.2
3.8
3.7
1.5
6.4
3.9
2.8
0.40
ATL
6.4
4.3
3.9
1.0
6.5
4.5
2.5
0.39
BAL
6.4
4.5
2.5
0.7
6.6
3.5
2.7
0.59
BUF
5.0
4.0
4.0
0.3
5.4
5.1
5.4
0.44
CAR
5.4
4.7
5.9
2.2
5.8
4.4
3.9
0.36
CHI
6.3
4.0
4.2
1.6
5.9
4.2
3.0
0.44
CIN
6.4
4.2
2.7
1.0
6.3
3.8
3.5
0.35
CLE
3.9
3.8
5.6
1.5
7.0
4.9
1.6
0.34
DAL
7.6
5.1
1.9
0.8
6.1
4.2
2.1
0.49
DEN
6.4
4.2
0.4
1.1
5.2
3.4
2.8
0.35
DET
4.8
3.9
5.6
1.0
7.0
4.7
2.1
0.48
GB
6.8
4.5
1.9
0.5
5.9
3.5
5.0
0.51
HOU
7.5
3.3
2.8
1.4
6.3
4.7
2.6
0.43
IND
7.8
3.7
1.9
0.7
4.9
4.3
3.0
0.32
JAC
6.1
5.1
1.9
0.7
6.9
4.3
1.8
0.29
KC
4.6
3.5
2.0
1.5
7.5
4.4
1.2
0.35
MIA
4.8
4.5
2.1
0.5
7.2
3.7
2.8
0.36
MIN
6.7
4.1
1.1
0.7
6.2
4.1
2.2
0.31
NE
7.1
4.1
1.6
0.2
5.4
4.5
2.8
0.39
NO
8.2
4.5
2.6
1.1
5.6
4.4
5.4
0.39
NYG
6.8
4.4
2.7
1.0
5.6
4.5
3.2
0.45
NYJ
5.7
4.8
5.1
1.4
4.8
4.0
2.7
0.38
OAK
4.3
3.6
4.4
0.9
6.8
4.5
2.2
0.35
PHI
6.3
4.7
2.3
0.8
5.3
3.6
5.3
0.48
PIT
7.6
4.0
2.6
1.6
5.4
3.8
1.9
0.38
SD
7.3
3.1
2.2
0.0
5.6
4.2
3.4
0.36
SF
5.2
4.4
2.7
0.6
6.4
3.4
2.1
0.42
SEA
5.6
3.5
1.9
1.2
5.8
4.4
2.8
0.32
STL
5.0
4.6
2.7
1.1
7.1
4.2
2.3
0.48
TB
5.0
4.1
4.5
2.1
7.5
4.8
5.1
0.35
TEN
5.4
5.4
3.8
1.6
6.7
4.4
2.9
0.39
WAS
5.8
4.0
3.2
1.3
5.3
4.2
1.8
0.46
Avg
6.1
4.2
3.0
1.0
6.1
4.2
3.0
0.40

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11 Responses to “Efficiency Rankings - Week 10”

  1. Dave says:

    Any explanation for why the Steelers beat the Broncos 28-10, but gain no GWP on them?

  2. Anonymous says:

    Early this week

  3. Anonymous says:

    When are the Win Probabillities going to be published on the short weeks?

  4. Anonymous says:

    i need to hand in my survivor pick by tomorrow. we'll you have the predictions ready midday tomorrow?

  5. Anonymous says:

    GB is WAY over-rated here. The Vikings have beaten them twice this season, have a 3-game lead on them in the division, and are ranked lower !?!

  6. Jeremiah says:
    This comment has been removed by the author.
  7. Jeremiah says:

    No wait, I got the percentages wrong. Shouldn't Denver's interception percentage be 1.5? This might explain why they haven't dropped this week.

  8. Jeremiah says:

    Also, the Chargers' fumble rate is listed as 0.0.

  9. Brian Burke says:

    0.0 for SD's fumble rate is for rushing fumbles, which considers running and sack fumbles. Receiving and special teams fumbles are excluded. They're simply not consistent in any way.

  10. Jeremiah says:

    Thanks, Brian.

  11. Eugene Carpet says:

    My Raiders show up in your stats to be just as bad as they play.

    Thanks

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