Game Probabilities - Week 7

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down.This week I also lead-in with my take on a pet peeve with many ranking systems.

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21 Responses to “Game Probabilities - Week 7”

  1. Jason says:

    I don't care, I'm still picking KC in my weekly picks league. I rode them last week and it worked out!

    Also, does your system take into account that NE/TB is essentially a neutral-site game? Not that I'm tempted to pick TB, mind you...

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Forgot about the London game. That would be more like .88/.12 in favor of NE due to the neutral site. Not that it matters very much.

  3. David BB says:

    Hi Brian,

    I was somewhat put off by your comments about the Den @ SD game. You really made yourself sound like a journalist there - results oriented nonsense :)

    I hope you know what I mean!

    Otherwise much <3

  4. Lanny Nugen says:

    Yeah Brian,
    I hope you would clarify your comments about Denver @ SD because it doesn't make sense to me. Your quote specifically

    "Except for some generally (unrepeatable special teams plays, it's likely the Charger would have won"

    How? Take both team special teams' scores out of the total score, Denver still won 20-16.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Win Chance GAME Win Chance
    0.84 Green Bay at Cleveland 0.16
    0.81 San Diego at Kansas City 0.19
    0.95 Indianapolis at St. Louis 0.05
    0.23 Minnesota at Pittsburgh 0.77
    0.86 New England at Tampa Bay (in London) 0.14
    0.31 San Francisco at Houston 0.69
    0.56 Buffalo at Carolina 0.44
    0.63 Jets at Oakland 0.37
    0.31 Atlanta at Dallas 0.69
    0.47 Chicago at Cincinnati 0.53
    0.86 New Orleans at Miami 0.14
    0.22 Arizona at Giants 0.78
    0.64 Philadelphia at Washington 0.36

    Brian explained how his predictions work in this post.

  6. Anonymous says:

    HERE GOES, I WENT 63.8% IN NCAA YESTERDAY.

    KC +5 1/2
    Colts -14 1/2
    Packers -9
    Vikings +6
    PATS -15 1/2
    HOUSTON -3
    Raiders +6
    Bills +7
    Bears PICK 'EM
    Saints -6 1/2
    ATLANTA +4 1/2
    ARIZONA +7
    Eagles -7

    BEST OF LUCK TO YA!!!

    JMED2 in GA

  7. Anonymous says:

    what exactly are you doing to get your predictions jmed?

  8. Anonymous says:

    KC +5 1/2.......L
    Colts -14 1/2...W
    Packers -9......W
    Vikings +6......L
    PATS -15 1/2....W
    HOUSTON -3......PUSH
    Raiders +6......L
    Bills +7........W
    Bears PICK 'EM,,L
    Saints -6 1/2...W
    ATLANTA +4 1/2..L
    ARIZONA +7......W
    Eagles -7.......?

    6-5-1,,,ONE TO PLAY,

    That was AWFUL!!! I'll stick to my Collge!

    JMED2 in GA

  9. Anonymous says:

    "What exactly are you doing to get your predictions jmed?"

    I use computer models to disect the Outright chance of a Team Victory, then the Money Line odds and payout which then leads to spread valuations.

    I'm going to attempt to beat the LOWDOWN gamblers this week in Vegas and show you my 12 best plays for this weeks NCAA College games:

    DUKE +7
    N. ILLONOIS -10
    KENT +1
    SMU +17
    UTEP -6 1/2
    AIR FARCE -3 1/2
    IDAHO -3 1/2
    FRESNO ST. -15 1/2
    SAN DIEGO ST -17
    WYOMING +16 1/2
    OREGON +3 1/2
    M. TENN ST +1 1/2

    GOOD LUCK TO YA!!!

    JMED2

  10. Anonymous says:

    jmed, do you have other predictions? what is the reason you are narrowing it down to 12 'best' predictions?

  11. Anonymous says:

    OREGON STATE -9 1/2
    CINCINATI -17
    GEORGIA +16
    NORTH TEXAS -10 1/2
    OLE MISS -3 1/2
    SC +5

    JMED2 in GA

  12. Anonymous says:

    11-1 straight-up is awful?

  13. Anonymous says:

    No, my picks against the Spreads in the PROs was downright AWFUL!!! Brian's system for straight winners looks like a great system. I've posted that before and said I was definately inpressed.

    JMED2 in GA

  14. Anonymous says:

    JMed will are you going to give all the picks like the last couple weeks?
    Please
    Thanks

  15. Anonymous says:

    Sure, no prob. I figured I'd just get "the 12 best" picks out before Vegas changed the lines thiw week.

    JMED2 in GA

    PS: 63.8% right last week, not too shabby and the Best was 9-3.

  16. Anonymous says:

    DUKE +7
    N. ILLONOIS -10
    KENT +1
    SMU +17
    UTEP -6 1/2
    AIR FARCE -3 1/2
    IDAHO -3 1/2
    FRESNO ST. -15 1/2
    SAN DIEGO ST -17
    WYOMING +16 1/2
    OREGON +3 1/2
    M. TENN ST +1 1/2
    OHIO -7 1/2
    TOLEDO -5
    MISS ST +3 1/2
    TEXAS TECH -7
    HOUSTON -6 1/2
    MICHIGAN ST -5
    OREGON STATE -9 1/2
    CINCINATI -17
    GEORGIA +16
    NORTH TEXAS -10 1/2
    OLE MISS -3 1/2
    SC +5

    THAT'S 24 PICKS SO FAR.

    JMED2 in GA

  17. Anonymous says:

    ADDING 5 MORE TO MAKE IT AN ODD NUMBER:

    FLORIDA ST. -7 1/2
    MIAMI-FLA -7
    IOWA ST +7 1/2
    TROY ST. -16
    WISCONSIN -6 1/2

    THAT'S 29 PICKS IN TOTAL.

    JMED2 in GA

  18. Anonymous says:

    ADD TONIGHT'S 8PM GAME, IT JUST WENT POSITIVE ON MY COMPUTER MODELS:

    EAST CAROLINA -6

    JMED in GA

  19. Jeremy says:

    I'm glad I found your site. I also have a statistical model that I have been playing. I will post my picks on Thursday to see how I compete with your picks. My picks are ATS(against the spread). My guess is that we will have very similar picks due to the statistical nature of our models.

  20. Anonymous says:

    JMED
    you got 30 games so far is that all you are going with this week or are you going to be posting more? I know the last few weeks you have had about 40 each week or do you just post what you think is gonna be good?
    Thanks

  21. Anonymous says:

    Oh ya, I got more. Wait until Brian puts out his official list. Remember, we're all guests here. I'll add 6-9 more.

    One WIN so far, huh?

    ECAR,,,Coach Skip "Lou" Holtz, huh?

    ya BABY ya!!! LOL

    JMED in GA

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