Super Bowl Probabilities and Potential Match-Ups

Here are the probabilities of winning Super Bowl XLIII going into the conference championships. Pittsburgh is the most favored, followed by Baltimore and Arizona.

I've also listed the probabilities of the potential Super Bowl match-ups below.










TeamSB Champ
PIT0.45
BAL0.20
ARI0.20
PHI0.14



And here are the potential match-ups:












PwinGAMEPwin
0.39 ARI vs BAL0.61
0.32 ARI vs PIT 0.68
0.39 PHI vs BAL 0.61
0.32 PHI vs PIT 0.68

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8 Responses to “Super Bowl Probabilities and Potential Match-Ups”

  1. Anonymous says:

    mistake- pit 0.67 * 0.62 = 0.415 ,not 0.45

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Thanks. The mistake was the PIT SB games. They're .32/.68 instead of .38/.62.

  3. Anonymous says:

    So,few quids on ari seems solid bet this weekend.Respect.

  4. Brian Burke says:

    Is that you, Ali G? Love the show.

  5. Anonymous says:

    What are these probabilitied based on?

  6. Anonymous says:

    Wil you be updating to include the championship game? I'd guess AZ would improve slightly.

  7. Brian Burke says:

    I'll update the SB probabilities soon. It will be 67/33 or so for PIT.

    To answer the question above, the probabilities are based on a logistic regression model. The model uses team efficiency stats, such as off and def net passing yds per att, off and def rush yds per att, and the various turnover rates, plus penalty yds per play. Home field advantage is also factored in. The data is from all teams/game outcomes from 2002 through 2007. More details in the About/Methodology menu item under the banner.

    For the playoff predictions I limited the team efficiency data to games since week 8.

  8. Anonymous says:

    I am looking for any assistance on Excel Spreadsheets on predictions on the Football games, I have a theory I want to work on and resolve and if this works out, anyone who helps me will be apart of the oranization... if any I am looking for someone who can answer me this question. where does the bookies make the homelines off on? previous scoring? 2008-2009 season? Neutral Fiels? Please help.

    Thanks... astig5150 and I do yahoo.

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