Division Round Playoff Probabilities

Last weekend the consensus favorites went 2 for 4 while the model here went 3 for 4. But this week there are no surprises as all four of the consensus favorites are favored here as well.

The game probabilities are based on team performance for all games since week 9, with the exception of week 17 when some teams played at less than full strength.

0.42 BAL at TEN 0.58
0.18 ARI at CAR 0.82
0.41 PHI at NYG 0.59
0.30 SD at PIT 0.70

Probabilities based on the complete regular season would be:
BAL at TEN, 0.41 to 0.59
ARI at CAR, 0.17 to 0.83
PHI at NYG, 0.50 to 0.50
SD at PIT, 0.37 to 0.63

Check back soon for the full Super Bowl probabilities.

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6 Responses to “Division Round Playoff Probabilities”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Would you be able to post probabilities based on the enxt matchup if all your favorites win? So Carolina vs. NYG, Ten vs. Pit?

  2. Anonymous says:

    Does this include the playoff games last week? With SD having the best passing of any team, why do they only have a 30% chance of beating Pitt?

  3. Brian Burke says:

    Yes, it includes the WC games. It's mostly due to PIT's incredible pass defense. The first half of SD's season was actually better than their last half, at least statistically. PIT's offense really improved in the 2nd half of the season also. Home field is working for PIT too.

    I'll try to post the hypothetical game probabilities at some point. I'll have conf champ and SB champ probs up soon.

  4. Anonymous says:

    how do the eagles fare better against the giants when you include the first half of the season...that makes no sense on both accounts...eagles performed better in the second half, and the giants performed worse.

  5. Brian Burke says:

    I'd say there's a few things going on w/ regard to PHI-NYG

    1. Early season strength of schedule.
    2. Week 17 was thrown out.
    3. The system does not look at wins and losses, but the performance underneath.

    PHI had phenomenal stats without many wins to show for it in the first half of the season. In my eyes, this was predictive of their apparent resurgence in the 2nd half of the season. I say apparent, because they were playing well all along.

  6. KiranR says:

    I made a few predictions of my own on my blog using a model that I've developed. Admittedly, my model is very rudimentary as compared to the sophistication of your model, or such as the ones built by Football Outsiders (I realize you're not exactly a big fan of theirs). Anyways, my model's predictions agree for the most part with both yours and FOs. I think the Philly-NYGiants game will be really close, really close, with Philly in a squeaker (and if that were to happen, I'd think that Carolina would be a favorite to win the Superbowl).

    Keep up the good work. You really are very good at what you do, and I enjoy reading your analyses/observations.

    If you're interested in my predictions, they're at http://newqrating.blogspot.com


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