This weekend AFC defensive powerhouses Baltimore and Pittsburgh match up, and NFC underdogs Philadelphia and Arizona square off.
The game probabilities are based on team performance for all games since week 9, with the exception of week 17 when some teams played at less than full strength. This includes playoff games to date.
|0.40||PHI at ARI||0.60|
|0.33||BAL at PIT||0.67|
Probabilities based on the complete regular season would be:
BAL at PIT, 0.33 to 0.67
PHI at ARI, 0.67 to 0.33
Why is Arizona favored over Philadelphia when weeks 1-8 are thrown out? The Eagles racked up gaudy stats early in the season despite not having the wins to show for it. Eventually, their luck started to even out and they squeaked into the playoffs. But throwing out their best statistical weeks really hurts them. Plus, Arizona's last two wins against quality opponents were convincing, improving both their stats and their average opponent strength significantly.