Week 16 Efficiency Rankings

The ratings are listed below in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here. This year, however, I've made one important change based on research that strongly indicates that defensive interception rates are highly random and not consistent throughout the year. Accordingly, I've removed them from the model and updated the weights of the remaining stats.






































RANKTEAMLAST WKGWPOpp GWPO RANKD RANK
1 CAR20.780.5567
2 ATL30.760.57116
3 PHI40.760.52102
4 PIT10.740.54201
5 SD80.710.53412
6 NO60.700.54214
7 NYG50.700.53311
8 TEN70.690.44154
9 WAS100.660.521110
10 MIA90.640.42520
11 BAL130.640.52193
12 IND140.630.47819
13 TB120.620.58188
14 DAL110.610.52169
15 CHI150.590.52226
16 NE200.550.471423
17 GB170.540.551217
18 MIN180.530.51255
19 DEN190.500.49726
20 ARI160.500.51924
21 NYJ210.450.432315
22 HOU220.410.491330
23 JAX230.350.491727
24 SF260.330.482425
25 BUF240.330.432721
26 OAK300.310.553013
27 KC270.310.542128
28 SEA250.300.463118
29 CIN280.290.563222
30 CLE290.220.552629
31 STL310.160.502831
32 DET320.130.582932




To-date efficiency stats below. As always, click on the headers to sort.







































TEAMOPASSORUNOINTRATEOFUMRATEDPASSDRUNDINTRATEPENRATE
ARI7.03.30.0240.0286.54.00.0230.37
ATL7.44.10.0220.0156.14.90.0190.31
BAL5.74.00.0290.0265.13.50.0480.39
BUF6.04.20.0330.0356.34.40.0210.29
CAR7.14.80.0300.0155.64.40.0220.33
CHI5.53.90.0290.0155.83.40.0380.31
CIN4.33.50.0310.0286.44.00.0260.29
CLE4.83.90.0380.0247.14.50.0530.34
DAL6.74.30.0380.0295.24.30.0160.50
DEN7.14.70.0280.0206.94.80.0130.35
DET5.33.80.0360.0397.95.00.0100.37
GB6.63.90.0250.0216.04.70.0420.49
HOU7.14.30.0390.0297.04.50.0280.33
IND6.83.40.0220.0106.04.10.0320.32
JAX5.84.20.0210.0187.04.00.0300.43
KC5.44.90.0320.0227.25.00.0260.30
MIA7.14.20.0150.0166.24.20.0290.35
MIN5.94.50.0380.0285.93.20.0240.36
NE6.14.50.0210.0176.54.10.0310.26
NO7.74.00.0290.0196.24.10.0300.39
NYG6.15.00.0220.0185.64.00.0340.42
NYJ5.94.80.0410.0226.13.70.0260.28
OAK5.14.20.0250.0366.34.70.0340.43
PHI6.24.00.0270.0145.13.50.0290.33
PIT5.93.60.0290.0284.43.30.0350.40
SD7.63.80.0240.0196.23.90.0230.37
SF5.94.00.0380.0426.23.80.0230.38
SEA5.14.30.0300.0206.84.10.0150.28
STL5.23.80.0390.0247.34.70.0240.38
TB6.04.00.0230.0205.94.20.0460.40
TEN6.24.30.0210.0195.03.70.0370.44
WAS5.64.40.0130.0205.73.80.0250.35
Avg6.14.10.0280.0236.24.10.0280.36

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3 Responses to “Week 16 Efficiency Rankings”

  1. Jason says:

    It saddens me to see the Eagles so high, but most likely on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Can I interpret this chart as that they are effective but poorly managed?

  2. JJB says:

    I'd think it means that the Eagles are "effective at moving the ball between the 20's, but not so much at scoring".

  3. Brian Burke says:

    That's probably true. The Eagles lost a bunch of very close games, and they really beat up on their weaker opponents. They are above average in every category, except 1--offensive rushing in which they are just about average. They're a really good team without a significant weakness, so they're record would normally be expected to be a game or two better.

    Two extra timely field goals could have made them 10-5 right now, on the inside track for the playoffs.

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