Week 8 Efficiency Rankings

This week's ratings are listed below in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here. This year, however, I've made one important change based on research that strongly indicates that defensive interception rates are highly random and not consistent throughout the year. Accordingly, I've removed them from the model and updated the weights of the remaining variables.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is the ranking of offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.






































RANKTEAMLAST WKGWPOpp GWPORANKDRANK
1 WAS10.820.5235
2 PHI20.810.5854
3 CAR40.750.5893
4 SD30.740.54416
5 CHI70.700.57107
6 NYG80.680.42115
7 MIA120.670.52224
8 NO90.650.58618
9 TB140.640.58172
10 BUF50.630.492110
11 PIT60.630.48261
12 ATL110.630.53721
13 DAL100.620.531211
14 ARI130.590.61819
15 TEN150.570.38188
16 MIN170.500.55229
17 GB180.500.481413
18 IND200.490.511314
19 NYJ160.460.443012
20 BAL230.460.47256
21 DEN210.450.481629
22 HOU240.430.451530
23 JAX190.430.511128
24 OAK220.380.512320
25 NE270.350.452726
26 CLE280.350.552023
27 STL260.330.601927
28 SEA250.320.492425
29 SF290.330.483117
30 CIN300.190.533222
31 KC310.180.512931
32 DET320.170.562832



The to-date season efficiency stats are listed below.






































TEAMOPASSORUNOINTRATEOFUMRATEDPASSDRUNDINTRATEPENRATE
ARI7.13.30.0220.0276.94.00.0140.41
ATL6.44.80.0240.0096.44.70.0210.35
BAL5.73.80.0360.0305.42.80.0420.48
BUF6.83.80.0190.0286.03.80.0180.30
CAR7.13.70.0220.0185.54.00.0190.39
CHI6.53.60.0170.0195.73.70.0350.40
CIN4.13.40.0340.0356.44.30.0170.36
CLE5.33.80.0290.0246.54.70.0450.40
DAL7.04.60.0300.0365.73.90.0080.51
DEN7.04.60.0270.0326.85.40.0090.36
DET5.34.20.0310.0368.44.70.0050.42
GB6.73.70.0180.0285.34.90.0560.61
HOU6.84.30.0330.0297.24.50.0260.21
IND6.23.40.0340.0095.84.20.0250.44
JAX5.84.10.0180.0147.04.40.0270.38
KC4.44.40.0340.0257.35.60.0310.28
MIA7.63.80.0140.0207.23.70.0190.30
MIN5.84.30.0330.0286.32.90.0180.46
NE5.54.20.0280.0166.84.40.0410.29
NO8.13.40.0230.0316.44.30.0210.50
NYG6.75.10.0180.0145.53.80.0380.50
NYJ5.94.60.0500.0236.03.20.0200.31
OAK5.34.30.0150.0316.54.50.0320.41
PHI6.84.10.0160.0175.63.50.0350.34
PIT5.93.90.0360.0334.42.80.0250.43
SD8.13.90.0260.0176.44.00.0190.37
SF6.04.50.0450.0446.43.60.0310.48
SS4.74.40.0360.0106.94.00.0090.30
STL5.34.00.0200.0237.34.80.0290.45
TB5.64.30.0260.0145.53.60.0460.48
TEN5.94.30.0260.0174.93.70.0480.38
WAS6.74.70.0000.0165.53.80.0180.35
Avg6.24.10.0260.0236.34.10.0260.39

  • Spread The Love
  • Digg This Post
  • Tweet This Post
  • Stumble This Post
  • Submit This Post To Delicious
  • Submit This Post To Reddit
  • Submit This Post To Mixx

3 Responses to “Week 8 Efficiency Rankings”

  1. Brian says:

    Did you ever post the weights of the remaining variables that resulted from the removal of defensive interception rate?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Thanks for reminding me. I've been working on other stuff, but here they are. I'll draft a new post explaining the methodology and try to include a sample calculation. But here's a quick and dirty version.

    For team B vs. team A, the new coefficients are:
    const -0.34
    Ahome 0.73
    ATRUOPASS 0.46
    AORUN 0.25
    ATRUDPASS -0.62
    ADRUN -0.25
    AOINTRATE -19.44
    ADINTRATE 0.00
    AOFUMRATE -19.38
    APENRATE -1.53
    BTRUOPASS -0.46
    BORUN -0.25
    BTRUDPASS 0.62
    BDRUN 0.24
    BOINTRATE 19.20
    BDINTRATE 0.00
    BOFUMRATE 19.80
    BPENRATE 1.52

  3. Jero says:

    Just an observation. It is interesting that more objective, calculation-based ranking models recognize teams like PHI, SD, & CHI while the "pundits'" rankings appear to recognize total wins listing said teams in the mediocre range. I would like to think the more subjective lists would be able to account for the unlucky.

Leave a Reply

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.