Standings Forecast Week 8

Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. Projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP) which is the chance a team will win against a league-average opponent at a neutral site. The projections account for future opponent strength (Fut Opp), and projected wins (proj W) is a total of current and estimated future wins. The methodology is described more fully here.














































TEAM GWP
Fut Opp GWPProj GWPCurr WProj W
AFC E
BUF0.630.390.72511.5
MIA0.670.370.77310.0
NYJ0.460.470.4948.4
NE0.350.530.3257.9
AFC N
PIT0.630.510.62510.6
BAL0.460.550.4147.7
CLE0.350.520.3336.0
CIN0.190.520.1801.4
AFC S
TEN0.570.460.62712.5
IND0.490.430.5638.1
JAX0.430.440.4837.4
HOU0.430.480.4537.0
AFC W
SD0.740.440.7839.2
DEN0.450.530.4247.8
OAK0.380.530.3525.1
KC0.170.560.1412.3
NFC E
WAS0.820.500.82612.5
PHI0.800.520.79411.1
NYG0.680.660.52610.7
DAL0.620.580.5459.3
NFC N
CHI0.690.450.74410.6
GB0.490.540.4548.0
MIN0.500.490.5037.5
DET0.160.580.1301.1
NFC S
CAR0.750.500.75612.0
TB0.630.500.63510.1
ATL0.620.560.5749.1
NO0.650.510.6349.1
NFC W
ARI0.580.520.5649.1
STL0.320.500.3224.9
SEA0.310.580.2524.2
SF0.320.550.2824.2

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7 Responses to “Standings Forecast Week 8”

  1. Anonymous says:

    I like this alot, great little table. But...

    Miami winning 7 of their last 9... doubtful.

    Philly winning 7 of their last 9... very tough.(faces NYG 2x, Dall, Wash and Ariz, Balt) tough sched.

    other than those, i can see these happening for the most part

  2. Brian Burke says:

    I'll definitely agree about PHI, but I think underneath their W-L record they are having a really solid year. MIA has a really soft sked. Both eastern divisions are really toss-ups.

  3. Temo says:

    Hmm... Dallas finishing last in the NFC East with 9 wins.

    As a dallas fan... that's a a very scary yet realistic projection. sigh.

  4. Anonymous says:

    Brian, i totally agree that Philly is having a great year. In the AFC, they easily go 12-4 in my opinion. But being in NFC East does them no favor, and at the end of the day, Wins matter, not how well you play in losses.

    What are the probabilities that DET and Cinci goes 0-16?? can that be done

  5. Brian Burke says:

    Anon-True, but it's not the end of the day yet for Philly, or any team. Performance in wins and losses are equally predictive.

    Yes, I can do 0-16 probability estimates for DET and CIN. I did the same thing at this point last year, except it was 16-0 estimates for IND and NE.

    I think the prob TEN does 16-0 is extremely low.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Could you include a simulation that projects the odds of each team winning its division? Thanks.

  7. Brian Burke says:

    Last year I teamed up with NFL Forecast to do that. I just checked the site and it looks like the first prediction for 2008 has just been posted. It looks like he's using my probabilities for week 9 (they're identical to mine), but I'm not sure where he's getting the following weeks' data.

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