Reggie Bush vs. Gus Frerotte

Wow, another cardiac arrest of a game Monday night. Here's how it unfolded in terms of win probability. Reggie Bush almost single-handedly won the game for the Saints, responsible for two touchdown returns and another return into Minnesota territory leading to a field goal. At one point New Orleans was up 27-20 with less than 10 minutes remaining in the game. But Gus Frerotte was able to make some incredible passes down the stretch. Gramatica's missed field goal in the 4th quarter was the real back-breaker. Not only did it waste a solid New Orleans drive, but it gave the ball to the Vikings in good field position with just enough time to score and not enough time for the Saints to respond. But the 42-yard pass interference by New Orleans defender Kaesviharn in Minnesota's game-winning drive sure didn't help.

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2 Responses to “Reggie Bush vs. Gus Frerotte”

  1. weinsteinium says:

    I'm surprised that anything in the first quarter has that much effect on the chance of winning a game.

    After NO drove to the Min 19 they were well over 75% chance to win

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Yup. From the MIN 19, NO was almost guaranteed at least a field goal to go up 10-0 at that point, which would typically give a team >80% chance at winning in the NFL. In other words, teams come back from a 1st-quarter 10-point deficit only 1 out of 5 times.

    The FG block/TD return changed that equation pretty quick.

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