Week 4 Efficiency Rankings

NFL team efficiency rankings are back for 2008. The ratings are listed below in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive generic win probability (OGWP) is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DGWP is a team's generic win probability assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here. This year, however, I've made one important change based on research that strongly indicates that defensive interception rates are highly random and not consistent throughout the year. Accordingly, I've removed them from the model and updated the weights of the remaining stats.








































RANKTEAMGWPOpp GWPOGWPDGWP
1 WAS0.780.620.790.73
2 SD0.720.530.730.58
3 NYG0.690.400.730.69
4 CAR0.660.580.650.72
5 PHI0.660.500.630.66
6 DAL0.650.490.770.53
7 NO0.610.560.700.53
8 ARI0.580.560.540.56
9 BUF0.560.400.480.61
10 MIN0.560.540.560.60
11 TEN0.550.390.460.64
12 CHI0.550.550.490.69
13 PIT0.550.450.430.68
14 NYJ0.540.540.390.60
15 DEN0.530.500.660.26
16 OAK0.520.540.410.59
17 SF0.490.430.410.54
18 MIA0.480.490.540.37
19 TB0.480.520.500.61
20 ATL0.470.380.580.41
21 IND0.460.480.530.44
22 JAX0.450.540.570.32
23 BAL0.440.370.410.64
24 SEA0.440.490.420.49
25 HOU0.400.560.440.31
26 GB0.390.450.410.53
27 NE0.370.430.370.29
28 STL0.350.630.510.27
29 CIN0.340.550.310.52
30 KC0.300.530.200.37
31 CLE0.230.530.320.32
32 DET0.200.530.330.15



To give everyone an insight into why the rankings are what they are, here are the team efficiency stats.





































TEAMOPASSORUNOINTRATEOFUMRATEDPASSDRUNDINTRATEPENRATE
ARI7.53.20.0280.0326.44.00.0170.40
ATL5.65.60.0190.0055.94.60.0310.40
BAL4.63.90.0250.0293.73.10.0590.48
BUF6.63.50.0170.0195.14.20.0250.24
CAR6.23.60.0080.0215.14.10.0080.51
CHI5.44.10.0330.0235.33.70.0280.40
CIN4.43.50.0480.0395.64.30.0090.37
CLE4.03.50.0510.0246.74.10.0570.52
DAL8.24.90.0290.0315.94.20.0000.53
DEN7.94.70.0250.0297.85.00.0070.24
DET5.24.40.0550.0248.75.60.0000.36
GB6.53.90.0230.0435.45.20.0570.64
HOU5.44.20.0450.0337.04.80.0130.18
IND6.03.60.0330.0086.04.90.0150.33
JAX5.54.30.0340.0057.34.10.0340.32
KC4.14.90.0450.0267.05.30.0180.22
MIA6.24.40.0100.0287.43.30.0120.39
MIN5.24.70.0230.0256.12.90.0160.40
NE5.23.90.0110.0206.95.00.0260.14
NO8.63.40.0270.0236.45.20.0270.55
NYG6.65.40.0090.0064.53.80.0100.47
NYJ6.43.80.0390.0216.63.10.0340.34
OAK5.64.80.0100.0416.14.00.0390.50
PHI6.73.50.0190.0235.52.60.0330.35
PIT5.53.40.0210.0374.42.90.0450.35
SD8.53.90.0360.0165.94.50.0290.25
SF6.64.70.0270.0376.04.00.0380.35
SEA4.94.90.0310.0136.53.50.0110.42
STL4.84.00.0250.0248.24.70.0090.43
TB5.35.00.0410.0106.13.60.0610.55
TEN6.33.80.0290.0244.53.70.0560.31
WAS6.34.30.0000.0005.94.30.0340.32
AVG6.04.20.0270.0236.14.10.0270.38

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7 Responses to “Week 4 Efficiency Rankings”

  1. Aren says:

    Brian,
    Im assuming Tampa dropped because Griese keeps throwing picks?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Mostly. Tampa's int rate went from average to well above average due to week 4's game. There are other reasons for teams to move. Even teams with byes will move as other teams around them improve or decline. Also, as opponents improve or decline, the opponent strength adjustment will change.

  3. Sampo says:

    The team efficiency stats still has "DINTRATE". I suppose it should be DFUMRATE.

  4. Anonymous says:

    Looks like we'll be seeing a few upset picks this week.

    Will you be posting the new weights for the remaining stats now that DINTRATE has been removed?

  5. Brian Burke says:

    No, it is actually def int rate. It's not factored into the ratings, but I left it in the chart so anyone interested could see how teams have fared there. But mostly I'm just lazy and my spreadsheet still grabs the data and makes a nice table that I don't want to mess with right now.

    Keep in mind, def interceptions are as critically important as ever, and explain a large part of why teams have won and lost. They're just not predictive of themselves. There are 2 kinds of rating/ranking systems--explanatory and predictive. I'm trying to make mine as predictive as possible.

  6. Steve says:

    B^2,

    Where do you get all these fantastic raw NFL game stats? I'd like to improve my game prediction algorithms, but am limited to having easy, timely and consistent access to game statistics from week to week and year to year.

    Thanks,

    S^2

  7. footballprofessor says:

    ha, that's funny...B^2 and S^2...i actually got that one.

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