Super Bowl XLII Prediction

The game probability for Super Bowl XLII is listed below. The calculations consider only the last 11 weeks of football. The first half of the season is excluded and recent playoff performance is included, accounting for regular season and playoff strength of schedule. The probability estimate also accounts for the game's neutral site.

The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength. Click here for a sortable comparison of playoff team stats from the regular season.









NE ProbSuper Bowl XLII

NYG Prob
0.76 NE vs. NYG 0.24

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44 Responses to “Super Bowl XLII Prediction”

  1. Mike Molloy says:

    That seems like a pretty wide margin. But then, the superbowl has seen some games with pretty one-sided expectations over the years, such as Jets/Colts or Bears/Patriots. Do you have historical data that would indicate if this is an unusually wide edge? I'm just curious.

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Mike--I think that's in line with most other spreads/odds. NE could arguably be among the best teams ever, and NYG is playing well lately but undistinguished overall.

    For historical comparisons, the Pro Football Reference blog does the best job.
    Here is a link to comparisons for the conference championships, but they haven't posted one for the SB yet.

  3. marianaa says:

    Based on that NE would win but the predictions were also with Dallas and Green Bay so we will see, I am a NE fan but I've gotta say NY is doing very well

  4. Mike Molloy says:

    Brian, thanks. Hmm, I confess myself surprised that a spread that big (or bigger, in the examples you linked at Pro Football Ref) is common. Live and learn.

  5. Brandon says:

    NY Giants will win this super bowl. I GUARANTEEEEE It.. It's more then confidence and me wanting the Giants to win, I boldy not only predict, but I personally GUARANTEEE each and every 1 of you folks the Giants will win this superbowl!!! I'v never made such guiarantees without feeling such a wide amount of confidence!

  6. TN Tammy says:

    There is not way to GUARANTEE a win from the Giants --who dropped you on your head?

    the Patriots will take it 19-0

  7. Brandon says:

    I guess you would like to tell Plaxico Burress that huh? The Patriots are not going 19-0. I'm sick to death of hearing about the Patriots, their greatness, their damn wins.. They WON'T WIN... I Can't be any more clearer then that... In fact, I urge all gamblers to bet the NY Giants, NOT WITH THE SPREAD with them +11.5, but rather bet the Giants straight up..

    They nearly knocked the Pats off in week 17. Thats all I need to know to know they aren't going 19-0 and blowing the Giants out.. NY Wins by a 3-4 + points.. BANKKKKKK ONNN ITTT

    I'm like trying to be straight here, I'm PROMISING, GUARANTEEING, IM TELLING YOU without the SLIGHTEST DOUBT The Giants will win!

  8. John says:

    Why is it that the Giants and their fans feel the need to GUARANTEE a win? The Pats will just quietly go about their business and win like they have all year!

  9. Brandon says:

    Because the Pats are 18-0. It's not necessary for them to guarantee a victory... Yet the Giants are playing an undefeated team. They are guaranteeing victory and break that streak.. Sound reasonable?? An undefeated team doesnt NEED to guarantee a victory, but the Giants WILL WIN.. Mark it down!

  10. Anonymous says:

    ne will kill by 24
    brandon you are absolutely wrong
    worst prediction ever

  11. Skip says:

    Seems to me that another team (Steelers) guarantee a win against the Patriots, and the Patriots beat them too. I believe it will be a close game and a nail biter right down to the final seconds, but in the end I believe the Patriots will win. No one can guarantee a win unless they have the game rigged. And unless you have paid off Brady, Moss, Welker, and the other members of the Patriots, which is very unlikely, then guarantee a win is impossible

  12. Brandon Hates The Patriots says:

    Ok Anonymous, I'd like your name that way I can come back here Sunday Night 9:30 P.M E.S.T and say "Told You So".. My prediction actually says the Patriots will lose by a FG.. Plaxico Burress, our star player believe New England will lose by 6 points. I won't even say we shall see, because The Giants are gonna wreck any hope N.E Ever had.. I truly hate this NEW ENGLAND WILL WIN BY 30 POINTS crap.. You people think getting touhdowns is so easy, maybe it is against a Dolphins team or 49'ers team, but teams don't score points in bunches against teams like the Bears, Colts, Giants etc. Not to say it hasn't happened, but saying the the Patriots will win by 21 points is the biggest crock of $hit i've ever heard.. Anyone whos gonna make a prediction like that for this years superbowl clearly knows nothing about football. Just because N.E is undefeated doesn't mean they didnt slip by BARELY against a baltimore team that LOST TO THE DOLPHINS, which was 3 yards shy of the end zone back in regular season, almost given em a victory.. Lets just say this, if Baltimore had a timeout after Kyle Boellers hail mary. That game would have been done and finished

  13. Brandon Despises The Patriots So Much says:

    Dude, your comparing no namers from Pittsburgh and San Diego that guaranteed victory to like the NFL's 2nd (In my opinion) best receiver in the NFL in Plaxico Burress... How the hell can u compare Plaxico Burress' guarantee to that edgar guy from San Diego or that dude Anthony whatever his name is from Pittsburgh? Those guys are no namers, and ur comparing them to superstar Plaxico Burress?????????

  14. Patriots Suck says:

    Patriots will lose sunday

  15. Skip says:

    Everyone knows you hate the Patriots. You are allowed to have your opinion, but you can not guarantee that the Giants will win just because they had a better second season. My opinion is who ever plays the best Sunday will win. The Patriots are tough and the Giants have just been lucky so far. Just becasue the Giants quater back is named Manning, doesn't make him like his brother.

  16. Poli says:

    Looking at how both teams are doing NOW, you would have to say the Pats are a bit lackluster in the playoffs, while the Giants have won, albeit inept and ugly. 24 to 17 seems a bit cheap, maybe more like 34 to 30, Big Blue.

  17. 18-0 one more to go says:

    Judging by the way the pats have played all season long and judging by the way the giants have played all year im sayin pats all the way 42-38 is my prediction. Although stranger things have happened im still sayin pats all the way. 18-0 one more to go

  18. I hate The Patriots says:

    I can't stand the Patriots... Bunch of lowlife cheaters.. they think there so good.. Nothing more then CHEATERS is what they are.

  19. Brandon says:

    The Giants getting to the superbowl was NOT Luck.. You don't have luck on your side in tghe postseason.. Beating the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers wasn't no fluke. No turnovers for Manning in the postseason, the ONLY QB with no interceptions in the postseason. Hardly seems like luck. Seems more of a team thats shown its true nastiness when it comes ready to play... Big Blue... 34, NE 30.. ENDING COMES WHEN BRADY FAILS TO CONVERT A 4TH DOWN

  20. Anonymous says:

    Boring stuff. We all know that the Pats should be 17-1. We all know they should have had the infamous spying game placed in the loss column. Just goes to show you that someone got paid off. Good luck to the Pats next year trying to keep the players they stacked this year. Good ole salary cap. If Brady is such a good QB, let's see how he would do with a bunch of no name receivers. A QB is only as good as his receivers. I hope the Giants tear the Pat's up. Win one for big brother Eli.

  21. Anonymous says:

    Patriots its all the way!!!!we got the superbowl 18-0 babe!!!everyone just hate on the Patriots because we win and everyone lose to us...stop hating on us....OH YEA GAINTS ARE GOING TO LOSE....

  22. Anonymous says:

    GIANTS ARE GOING TO LOSE ON SUNDAY...

  23. Anonymous says:

    PATRIOTS 18-0 babe!!!!
    GIANTS ARE GOING TO LOSE!!!!\

  24. Anonymous says:

    Patriots got this!!!all the way...

  25. Anonymous says:

    Giants suck....

  26. zach says:

    Brandon-- you, my fine gentleman, are an imbecile. the giants have no chance. if you are so confident, why don't you put your money where your naive mouth is.

  27. Anonymous says:

    When was the last time the Giants won the Superbowl? NE has the upper hand, they have been there before and they know what they are doing! The comment about the spying game, Why is it ok for a baseball catcher to learn or steal the other teams signals and not ok for football?

  28. Anonymous says:

    the patriots will destroy the giants

  29. Brandon Vanderbilt says:

    Anonymous can you please shut your trap. You posted like 60 posts about your great Patriots. Typical of a Ptariots Fan.. And Zach... do you know football?? Do you know anything about the NFL?? Apparently not. Just because the Patriots went 18-0, and cheated halfway through the season has no bearing on the Superbowl. The playoffs, let alone the Superbowl, is NOT like the regular season Zachary, you fine gentleman, you are an embicile.

    The Giants will win this Sunday, and after that game is locked and done, let's see how stupid you are for putting down a team that you think somehow got their through LUCK.. Lol u dont get to a superbowl with luck ok.. Oh yea, as for my money where my mouth is... I had the Giants over Tampa for 1 Grand, I had Giants Over the Cowboys for $500, and Giants over the Packers for $300.. Might I add I took the MONEYLINE on all 3 of them, meaning I took the Giants to win straight up.. and now I have the Giants for $1,500 to win the superbowl. I've only lost 1 game all season betting on the Giants and that was agaianst the Minnesota Vikings.

    Giants Win, Pats lose, deal woith it.. Have your doctor prescribe you some medication of you cant handle the Pats heartbreaking loss

  30. Brandon says:

    Oh yea, and little Zach, I have never met such a insecure little jerkoff such as yourself in all my life. My Naive little mouth? Oh wait, that's right, I must truly believe the Patriots will win in order for me to not be naive right? So my opinion the Giants will win all of a sudden makes me naive little boy? Obviously I'm calling you little because normal mature grown adults don't call others naive for predicting an upset. Just like the Giants didn't stand chances over Green Bay or Dallas right?? Your a naive little jerkoff for baiting people into believing the Patriots will win the superbowl and anything less of a prediction by anybody in your opinion automatically makes them "Naive"..

    Your just all around naive in every way possible. Fuckin Patriots fan.. Typical of you.

  31. Anonymous says:

    He's a patriots fan what do you expect lmao

  32. Alex says:

    Zach if you think the Patriots are so good and "upstoppable" then why don't you bet them for every penny you got that way we can laugh at you after you go bankrupt and lose since you can't respect how far the Giants came, knowing they will pull off the biggest upet in NFL History right alongside Joe Namath's "Guarantee"

  33. Anonymous says:

    Still hangin' with my Colts. What can I say, maybe next year. Therefore I hope the Pat's and especially Brady get their dicks knocked in the dirt. Wishful thinkin'. Go Giants and get revenge for the Jets, who obviously the Pat's felt they had to cheat to beat.

  34. Anonymous says:

    personally I believe this is the Giants year to win the superbowl because I hate the Patriots!

  35. Anonymous says:

    GO GO NY GIANTS HOW THAT YOU WIN

  36. Anonymous says:

    are you kidding me, the giants only lost by a filed goal last time. on they are on fire. they swept thre the playoffs taking out green bay and dallas. i definately think they will win.

  37. Marie says:

    OK first of all..Giants CAN and WILL will the super bowl.The last time they played the patriots it was a 38-35.They lost my 3 points. So i think everyone on the patriots side needs to keep there mouth shut cuz GIANTS are going to win. SO the patriot and go sux wind!

  38. Anonymous says:

    My prediction for tomorrow is: Patriots 38, Giants 35 which should be eerily and exactly the same score just like their last meeting during the regular season finale

  39. Troy says:

    This is the superbowl. Neither sides defense is going to let the other team score 38 or 35 points. This games has "small scoring game" written all over it.. NYG 23, N.E 17

  40. Brandon [Told you so Zach] says:

    I'm so fucking happy right now that my NY Giants just won Superbowl 42. Not to mention I layed $1,200 on the Giants to win the superbowl, and I just banked THOUSANDS of dollars today, but Ijust shoved your words right back down your throat Zach.. Man you know nothing? Put my money where my mouth is?? Just di that and guess who just made over 5 FUCKING GRAND! Not to mention I GUARANTEED victory for the superbowl, and it happened just as I predicted, by a NYG Field goal!!

    Fuckin man, I love my NYG

  41. Anonymous says:

    Ouch Zach That's gotta hurt. LMAO, LMAO. The New England Chokers !!!! HA !!! HAAAAAA!!! AHHHHH HAAAAAAA !!! Man I love it !!!!! Way to go Giants!!!!! What's your prediction for next year Zach ? LMAO LMAO AGAIN

  42. Brandon says:

    Quote by Zach "Giants Have No chance"

    2nd Quote By Zach - "Put your money where your mouth is"

    Lol looks like Im 2-0 on you ZACH xuz not only did I collect over 5 Grand ALONE today on todays game, but I also made you look stuoid into baiting people into believing your Patriots would win. I called it just as it happened...LOW SCORING, Giants Win, and Giants Win by a FG... 3-0 on you Zach, while you stand at 0-3.

    I'm never 1 to brag, but when you tell me to put my money where my naive mouth is, I can only laugh and mock you as I walked out today not only proud repesrting my NY Giants as Superbowl 42 Champions, But I just banked home thousands.

    Whose your prediction next year Zach?? The dolphins?

  43. Brandon 'Is having a hard time controlling his emotions] says:

    See look at that, I'm so fucking happy I can't even type right!!

  44. Dan says:

    Brian, I appreciate your work. Great sight! Very informative, and unique prespectives.

    A question about the role of luck?
    Doesn't it follow from your conclusion that there is a theoretical celing on the % any favorite may have in a game and that celing is ( 52.5%/2) + 48/5% approx. 74.25%. Also that this would be reserved for the most lopsided matchup of team #1 vs. team #32. If this is true how did NE come out as a 76% fav. for SB?
    Just wondering if im missing something?

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