Week 15 Efficiency Rankings

NFL team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule. GWP modifies the generic win probability to reflect the strength of past opponents. Offensive ranking (O Rank) is based on each team's offensive GWP, i.e. it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. D Rank is vice-versa. Rankings are based on a logistic regression model applied to data through week 15. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.






































RankTeamLast WkGWPOpp GWPO RankD Rank
1NE10.880.5415
2IND20.870.5431
3DAL30.790.5047
4TB40.760.4866
5JAX50.740.57211
6GB60.690.47512
7SD90.680.51144
8PIT80.630.47163
9SEA70.630.39139
10PHI100.620.55814
11TEN130.580.53222
12DEN120.550.49727
13MIN110.550.441217
14WAS150.540.53188
15NYG140.500.501910
16HOU180.500.521525
17CLE170.480.46926
18BUF160.470.561716
19NYJ190.440.552119
20NO210.430.501132
21CIN200.420.471031
22ATL240.360.512022
23BAL220.350.492520
24CAR270.330.512715
25KC250.330.543113
26MIA280.310.532628
27ARI230.310.432323
28DET260.300.522421
29STL290.290.462918
30OAK300.270.502824
31CHI310.250.523030
32SF320.140.433229

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2 Responses to “Week 15 Efficiency Rankings”

  1. coldbikemessenger says:

    Jaguars at 2 on offense.
    Cowboys at 4?
    Is this due to penalty rates?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    The Jags O just put up a lot of points on the Steelers. I think the biggest reason they're ranked so high is lack of turnovers.

    The Cowboys have had a rash of turnovers lately.

    Penalty rates aren't included in the offensive and defensive rankings, just the total GWP. Unfortunately, penalties aren't classified as offensive or defensive, just as 'for' or 'against' a team.

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