Game Predictions Week 16

Game probabilities for week 16 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.






















VprobVisitorHomeHprob
0.75PITSTL0.25
0.84DALCAR0.16
0.48CLECIN0.52
0.82GBCHI0.18
0.10HOUIND0.90
0.45KCDET0.55
0.04MIANE0.96
0.44NYGBUF0.56
0.09OAKJAX0.91
0.60PHINO0.40
0.41WASMIN0.59
0.47ATLARI0.53
0.18BALSEA0.82
0.29NYJTEN0.71
0.93TBSF0.07
0.29DENSD0.71

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3 Responses to “Game Predictions Week 16”

  1. Alan says:

    Interesting. Your system likes Cincinnati, like DVOA, even though it seems like they suck.

  2. Brian Burke says:

    True. Cin and Cle are very similar teams good O, bad D. Cle is slightly better, but the difference in the prediction this week is home field advantage. It's basically a toss-up.

  3. Anonymous says:

    So, what happen with the TB vs. SF game? I will tell you what happen - Shaun Hill! Go Niners!

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