Game Predictions Week 14

Game probabilities for week 14 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.





















VprobVisitorHomeHprob
0.18CHIWAS0.82
0.14CARJAX0.86
0.92DALDET0.08
0.31MIABUF0.69
0.35NYGPHI0.65
0.12OAKGB0.88
0.17PITNE0.83
0.55SDTEN0.45
0.27STLCIN0.73
0.73TBHOU0.27
0.20ARISEA0.80
0.83MINSF0.17
0.43CLENYJ0.57
0.33KCDEN0.67
0.84INDBAL0.16
0.43NOATL0.57

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2 Responses to “Game Predictions Week 14”

  1. jonnymo says:

    So, your upset specials are the Jets and Falcons? Hmm... maybe I'll pass this week.

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Yeah, I wish I could override on a couple obvious games. The Jets and Saints are much different teams than they were at the beginning of the year, and this year I'm not including any overweighting of recent performance--probably a mistake. But I'll let the probabilities fall where they may, just to have an honest test of its accuracy.

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