'Dome at Cold'

This week features two of the three "dome team at cold weather" games of the 2007 season. Earlier, CIN defeated STL in week 14. Today CHI hosts NO and GB hosts DET.

Dome teams are at a severe disadvantage when playing in cold weather. Over the past five regular seasons, they've won only about 14% of the time in those situations. Accounting for relative team strength, they would be expected to win only 12% of the time.

GB is already a heavy favorite over DET, and the weather factor would only enhance GB's expected chance of winning. But the game prediction model features closer odds for the NO at CHI game. NO is favored with a 0.57 probability of winning.

However, when the weather is factored in CHI is going to be favored. Replacing the standard home field advantage coefficient with the "dome at cold" coefficient we get a 0.62 win probability for CHI.

With the weather factor, GB becomes a heavier favorite at 0.92.

Some people are already looking ahead to the likely AFC championship match-up between IND and NE. Although IND played NE very well, and nearly won the game earlier in the year without five starters, their next game will be very different. It will be in Foxboro, Mass. in late January. It was no fluke that the one year IND was able to get past NE to get to the Super Bowl was the year they hosted the game.

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