Another Plug for NFL Forecast

One cool feature of the web-based playoff prediction engine found at NFL-Forecast.com is the "predicted wins" tab. Each teams' final win total is plotted as a probability distribution according to the game probabilities calculated here at NFL Stats. The neat part to me is the "probability of making the playoffs with x wins." It gives the probability of making the playoffs for each win total.

For example, Cleveland's playoff probabilities for each win total look like this:

8 wins--5%
9 wins--30%
10 wins--80%
11 wins--100%

It takes a minute or two to play with the app to realize how neat it really is. You can move the slider bars for any game, setting your own game probabilities--you're not stuck with mine. (To account for today's results, I moved the sliders to 100% for each winner.) Then click on Forecast/Forecast Remainder of Season. You can then click on the tabs at the bottom of the app to see playoff probabilities, expected win totals, division standings, and (for the MIA, SF, STL, and ATL fans out there) the 2008 draft order probabilities.

If you're a fan of a team on the bubble, you can move the sliders to see your team's playoff odds for "what if" scenarios. Let's say the Redskins win out--they'd have a 97% chance for a playoff spot. (Three straight wins would include a victory over MIN in week 16, and determine the tie-breaker. )

And if Detroit wins out, they'd have a 53% chance of making the playoffs.

Pretty cool.

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1 Responses to “Another Plug for NFL Forecast”

  1. Chris says:

    Or if you're a Chiefs fan, you can figure out your conditional odds for a top 5 draft choice. :(

    It is amazing how settled the playoff races are with three weeks remaining. I've never seen things so certain. Practically speaking, there is really only one playoff spot open in each conference, and even those have a clear front runner. Even the seeding order is close to determined.

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