Someone recently pointed out a study that indicated home field advantage (HFA) is not the same for every stadium. While that's certainly true, it's very hard to quantify. By definition, the same team is always the home team when measuring a particular location's HFA, so in any given year there would be a lot of team strength captured in a variable accounting for the field's HFA.
The efficiency model I've used includes a factor for HFA, but it is the same regardless of climate. This is the beginning of an effort to quantify the effect of climate on HFA and to see how much of HFA is due to climate differences and how much is due to other factors such as crowd noise, referee psychology, or travel.
The table below lists each home team along with their average December weather. Click on the table headers to sort
|Team||Avg Dec T||Avg Dec Wind||Wind Chill|
It's not a surprise that Green Bay is coldest by far, followed by places such as Buffalo, Cleveland, and Chicago. Green Bay would even qualify as a cold climate through November with an average 36 deg wind chill. But I was surprised by how much colder (and windier) a place like Kansas City is than Baltimore or Washington. I'm still considering how to classify each city. Domes are easy, but where is the line drawn between cold and moderate? Should there be cold, moderate, and "warm" classes? For now I'd put the line between cold and moderate at 40 deg wind chill, between DEN and SEA. I'd also define warm weather teams starting at 60 deg between OAK and HOU.
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